How geopolitical risks are influencing the evolution of insurance in the Middle East

Recent geopolitical developments have brought renewed attention to the environment in which this growth is unfolding

How geopolitical risks are influencing the evolution of insurance in the Middle East

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By Holly Porter

The following article is written by Holly Porter (pictured), executive director, markets & opportunities - Chartered Insurance Institute.

The Middle East insurance sector has experienced steady expansion in recent years and is now entering a phase of accelerated, structurally driven growth. Valued at approximately $39.6 billion in 2024, the market is projected to exceed $91 billion by 2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of around 9.7%. This places the region among the faster‑growing insurance markets globally.

However, recent geopolitical developments have brought renewed attention to the environment in which this growth is unfolding. Escalating regional tensions, disruption to trade routes, pressure on supply chains and heightened political uncertainty have reinforced the reality that insurance markets in the Middle East must be able to operate effectively under stress, and to respond quickly as risk profiles shift.

Several forces continue to underpin the sector’s growth trajectory. Regulatory reform remains central, particularly the introduction and expansion of compulsory insurance schemes in motor and health and medical lines, which have significantly increased penetration across markets such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, demographic dynamics – including rapid population growth, urbanisation and a large expatriate workforce – are sustaining demand for life and health insurance products.

Economic policy is reinforcing this momentum. Diversification strategies, most notably Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, are driving corporate activity, infrastructure development and new forms of enterprise, increasing demand for more sophisticated commercial insurance solutions. In parallel, digital transformation is reshaping the operating landscape. Insurtech adoption in the Middle East is expected to grow at more than 50% CAGR, improving accessibility, enhancing customer experience and delivering operational efficiencies.

Yet recent events have sharpened the focus on resilience. Heightened geopolitical risk – affecting areas such as shipping, aviation, energy supply and cross‑border investment – has underscored how critical it is for insurers and intermediaries to have experienced professionals in the region who can interpret rapidly evolving exposures, apply technical judgement and respond decisively, grounded in local regulatory and market knowledge.

This reality is shaping how firms across the sector think about professional capability. Beyond the assurance that employees are technically competent, corporates are increasingly mindful of the wider benefits that come from developing and retaining home‑grown talent. Strong internal capability supports better succession planning, reduces reliance on reactive overseas hiring and ensures continuity of expertise when external conditions deteriorate.

There is also a clear cost and risk dimension. Recruiting specialist expertise from abroad – particularly for senior management and C‑suite roles – can be expensive and uncertain, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Firms that actively support employees in their career goals and invest in structured professional development tend to see stronger loyalty, deeper organisational commitment and greater readiness to respond when markets are disrupted.

Regulators and industry leaders across the Middle East are reinforcing this shift. Higher expectations around competence, accountability and continuing development reflect an understanding that confidence in insurance markets depends on professional judgement as much as financial strength, particularly when geopolitical developments place pressure on underwriting assumptions, claims handling and capital adequacy.

The scope of required expertise is also broadening in response to these risks. Alongside core underwriting and claims skills, demand is rising for knowledge in areas such as cyber risk, data analytics and geopolitical exposure management. Specialist lines including marine, aviation and energy have taken on renewed prominence as regional trade routes, logistics hubs and infrastructure projects face more complex and dynamic risk environments.

Learning and development approaches are evolving accordingly. Across the Middle East, there is growing engagement with structured, continuous professional development models that combine digital delivery with applied, scenario‑based learning. These approaches are designed to ensure professionals can build deep technical capability while remaining agile and responsive to rapidly changing conditions.

Ultimately, the emphasis on professional capability reflects a broader understanding of the role of insurance as an economic stabiliser. A strong, trusted insurance sector supports investment, facilitates trade and helps economies withstand shocks. As the Middle East continues to grow in scale and complexity, recent geopolitical developments have served as a timely reminder that the sector’s ability to deliver on its promise rests, above all, on the expertise, judgement and preparedness of its people.

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