Collision in the Gulf sparks renewed concern over shadow fleet, war risk exposure

Burning tanker on Lloyd's list dark fleet register

Collision in the Gulf sparks renewed concern over shadow fleet, war risk exposure

Marine

By Matthew Sellers

Two oil tankers caught fire off the coast of the United Arab Emirates in a dramatic incident that has once again brought simmering maritime security concerns in the Gulf into sharp relief. The collision, which occurred 24 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, involved the Antigua- and Barbuda-flagged Adalynn – possibly part of the so-called “dark fleet” – and the Front Eagle, a vessel operated by Frontline PLC, one of the world’s largest tanker firms. 

All 24 crew aboard the Adalynn were rescued, and no casualties were reported, but fires aboard both vessels have unsettled insurers and shipping markets alike. Though no direct link has yet been made to the Israel-Iran hostilities, the incident comes amid a backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, navigational jamming, and a growing presence of uninsured vessels operating outside conventional maritime regulation. 

‘Dark Fleet’ collisions and the shadow economy at sea 

There is conjecture that the Adalynn is part of the shadow – or “dark” – fleet: a growing cohort of ageing tankers used for illicit or sanction-dodging oil trades. Such vessels often operate under flags of convenience, turn off transponders to avoid detection, and lack proper maintenance or insurance cover. According to Allianz’s Safety and Shipping Review 2025, these shadow fleet ships now comprise nearly 17% of the global tanker population – an unprecedented figure-up from virtually nothing just a few years ago. 

Incidents involving these vessels are multiplying. Over 50 have been recorded to date, including major fires, groundings, and collisions in key maritime transit zones. Allianz warns that “the shadow fleet continues to pose a serious risk to maritime safety and the environment,” with cleanup costs from a potential oil spill involving such vessels estimated at up to US$1.6 billion. 

The Adalynn’s status as potentially uninsured adds an acute layer of exposure for stakeholders, especially if environmental liabilities emerge. Shadow tankers typically lack liability coverage, meaning that if oil were spilled or damage inflicted, owners of nearby cargo, port facilities, or even other vessels might find themselves without recourse to conventional claims routes. 

Strait of Hormuz: A chokepoint under strain 

The collision’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz – through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids flow – has reignited debate over the vulnerability of global supply lines to regional flashpoints. As noted in the Allianz report, the strait is among a series of global chokepoints increasingly “politicised” by proxy conflicts, sanctions, and shipping attacks. 

“Shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are now operational minefields,” said Capt. Rahul Khanna, Allianz’s global head of marine risk consulting. “We’ve seen sabotage, drone attacks, and vessel seizures. Even if an incident is accidental, the market reacts as if it’s not.” 

Indeed, the Front Eagle’s operator reported suffering navigational jamming earlier in the week – a phenomenon that has spiked across several global hotspots. Lloyd’s List data shows 250 fire/explosion incidents globally in 2024 alone, the highest figure in a decade and a 20% year-on-year increase. 

War risk premiums and a tipping point for marine cover 

The twin themes of shadow fleet risks and geopolitical tensions are placing extraordinary pressure on marine underwriters. War risk premiums – particularly for tankers transiting high-risk zones – are on an upward trajectory. The Red Sea, still recovering from Houthi-linked disruptions, has seen marine war claims spike, and markets are bracing for similar volatility in the Gulf. 

Allianz’s report cautions that traditional causes of maritime loss – fire, collision, mechanical failure – are being overtaken in impact by political and conflict-driven exposures. "While we’ve made headway in reducing large-scale losses, multiple geopolitical conflicts could overwhelm the war insurance market,” said Justus Heinrich, the firm’s marine hull product leader. 

Frontline PLC has yet to confirm the extent of the Front Eagle’s damage or its expected claims exposure. But the implications for the broader tanker market are already rippling out. Rates for Gulf transits surged overnight, and operators are reassessing their risk thresholds as questions mount over vessel routing, flag transparency, and the adequacy of cover in contested waters. 

A foggy horizon for shipping markets 

While the incident east of Khor Fakkan may not be tied to a deliberate act of aggression, it serves as a potent reminder that the line between accident and escalation is growing dangerously thin in today’s maritime theatre.  

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