Property & Casualty Loss Development and Reserve Analysis Insights

Overview:

This dashboard offers a comprehensive and structured analysis of insurer reserve development patterns, paid losses, and reserve adequacy based on the Annual Statement Year 2024. It is designed to support informed decision-making across underwriting, product strategy, financial planning, claims management, and regulatory compliance. 

The visualizations provide insights into insurers' financial strength, reserving discipline, and claim settlement behavior. Equipped with dynamic filters by Company Name and Line of Business, this dashboard serves as a powerful tool for in-depth reserve diagnostics and loss development analysis. 

Note: All Risk Retention Group (RRG) companies have been excluded to ensure comparability and consistency in the analysis. 

Key Concepts: 

  • Accident Year (AY): The year in which premiums were earned and insured events (losses) occurred, regardless of when claims are reported or settled. 
  • Development Year (DY): The calendar year when claim development is recorded. For example, for AY 2015, DY-2 corresponds to development occurring in year 2017. 
  • Incurred Losses + DCCE: Total expected cost of claims, including Defense and Cost Containment Expenses. 
  • Paid Losses + DCCE: Cumulative claim payments made to date. 
  • Carried Reserves: The total reserves an insurer holds for unpaid claims, including reserves for both reported claims (case reserves) and claims that have been incurred but not yet reported or fully developed (bulk reserves and IBNR). 
  • Case Reserves: The portion of carried reserves specifically set aside for reported claims that are recognized but not yet settled. 
  • Bulk + IBNR Reserves: Estimates for incurred but not reported claims and claims expected to develop further. 

Dashboard Navigation & Purpose: 

Page 1: Loss Development Overview 

This page provides foundational context on total claim liabilities and how quickly claims are paid over time. 

  • Incurred Losses Triangle: Shows cumulative total estimated losses. 
    • Example Insight: AY 2017 incurred losses remained stable at $373.4B from DY-2 (2019) to DY-7 (2024), indicating minimal reserve revision. 
  • Paid Losses Triangle: Shows actual cumulative claim payments. 
    • Example Insight: AY 2020 paid losses rose from $185.7B at DY-0 (2020) to $353.5B at DY-4 (2024), suggesting rapid claim settlement (+$167.8B). 

Page 2: Reserve Composition 

This section breaks down unpaid reserves into total and case-specific categories, offering insight into conservatism and reporting maturity. 

  • Carried Reserves Triangle: Displays the estimated unpaid portion of total losses. 
    • Example Insight: AY 2019 carried reserves declined from $213.3B at DY-0 (2019) to $127.0B by DY-1 (2020), and further to $42.17B at DY-4 (2023). This trend illustrates consistent reserve runoff, indicating that claim settlement is progressing as expected for this accident year. 
  • Case Reserves Triangle: Highlights reserves for reported claims only. 
    • Example Insight: AY 2021 case reserves decreased from $96.59B at DY-0 (2021) to $28.89B by DY-3 (2024), reflecting expected reductions as claims are settled. This supports the notion of a well-managed claims cycle with early reserve recognition. 

Page 3: Reserve Adequacy & Payment Metrics 

These ratios help assess how conservative or aggressive reserving appears, and how mature each accident year's claim settlements are. 

  • Reserve-to-Paid Ratio Triangle: Compares unpaid reserves to paid claims to evaluate reserve sufficiency. 
    • Example Insight: AY 2020, DY-0 (2020) ratio was 1.21 → categorized as Actuarial Precision, meaning the insurer held $1.21 in reserves for every $1 of claims already paid. 
  • Paid-to-Incurred Ratio Triangle: Compares paid claims to total incurred losses, showing how much of the total estimated losses have been paid out. 
    • Example Insight: AY 2020, DY-4 (2024) paid-to-incurred ratio was 88.9%, indicating that most claims are nearing full settlement. 

Page 4 – Reserve Adequacy Drilldown 

Examine granular reserve and payment metrics at the accident year and development year level, enabling identification of under- or over-reserving patterns by company or segment.  

Use Case: Identify specific Accident Year and Development Year combinations where companies may exhibit under- or over-reserving practices. This enables meaningful benchmarking across companies or business segments. 

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