The conditions for pension risk transfer are about as favorable as they have been in years. Interest rates remain elevated, defined benefit plan funding ratios are high, annuity purchase prices are competitive, and carrier competition is keeping costs down. Yet transaction volumes fell sharply in the first half of 2026, and the carriers who write these deals are not expecting a full-year recovery.
The volume decline despite those conditions is the headline finding from October Three's 2026 Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) Trend Report, based on a survey of 18 major insurance companies conducted between July 1 and August 6. Those 18 respondents represent approximately 78% of carriers actively participating in the PRT market. October Three is a pension risk management and consulting firm that advises on PRT transactions.
The survey data is stark. Ninety-four percent of carrier respondents reported a decrease in the number of PRT transactions in H1 2026 compared with H1 2025, while 89% reported lower total premium. In absolute terms, carriers surveyed participated in 216 PRT transactions totaling $6.05 billion in the first half of the year. Plan terminations drove the majority of activity at 66% of all transactions, with participant lift-outs making up 28%.
The volume decline does not point to weakening demand. It points to hesitation. The report cites geopolitical and economic uncertainty, including tariff unpredictability and pressure on oil supply, as factors making plan sponsors reluctant to commit to large financial transactions. All respondents reported completing fewer jumbo transactions ($1 billion or larger) in H1 2026 than in H1 2025. Carriers expect H2 2026 to recover, consistent with the market's historical pattern of back-loading activity into Q3 and Q4.
The October Three data lands alongside a picture of unusually favorable execution conditions. A recent analysis of the PRT market found, discount rates stood at a three-year high of 6%, with annuity buyout costs for the largest US plans falling to approximately 99.6% of accounting liabilities, below book value. Well-funded plans, competitive pricing, and a market expected to get busier in the second half make the timing question a concrete one.
One finding that carries direct operational weight sits in the report's client onboarding section. Seventy-two percent of carriers identified incomplete data from plan sponsors as the primary driver of delayed onboarding, while 61% said it raised their post-sale expenses. For 44% of carriers, onboarding timelines typically run between 60 and 90 days, with a further 34% taking longer.
For plan sponsors facing plan-year deadlines, those delays can trigger additional actuarial, administrative, and regulatory costs. The readiness of a plan's participant data is not a carrier problem. It is a plan sponsor preparation problem, and advisers who begin that work before a transaction is agreed shorten timelines and reduce costs.
Church plans emerged as the largest non-traditional source of new PRT business in H1 2026. Forty-six percent of carriers reported their greatest deal flow from outside traditional single-employer plans came from church plans, with multiemployer plans cited by 23%. For advisers who have historically limited DB-plan conversations to corporate single-employer clients, those numbers suggest the population worth engaging is wider than it was.
