In early October, approximately 600,000 Humana Medicare Advantage members will receive non-renewal notices informing them their plan will not exist in 2027. For brokers with Medicare clients on Humana coverage, those letters are a countdown clock.
Humana confirmed the exits on its July 29 earnings call. Chief financial officer Celeste Mellet said the company would "cut off the lower tail of profitability" rather than reduce benefits uniformly across its portfolio. The exits target plans rated 3.5 stars or lower for the 2027 bonus year and represent about 8% of Humana's 7.2 million Medicare Advantage members. President and CEO Jim Rechtin said the strategy is intended to return the company to a sustainable pre-tax margin of at least 3% by 2028.
Humana expects to recapture roughly 40% of affected members by moving them into other plans it offers, consistent with its 2025 experience. That leaves an estimated 360,000 members needing to find coverage elsewhere. Federal rules require the non-renewal notice to be dated October 2 for coverage ending December 31. Members have until December 7, the close of Medicare's annual enrollment period, to make a new coverage decision.
The 2027 round is Humana's second consecutive year of market exits. For 2026, the company pulled back from three states and 194 counties, reducing its footprint to 46 states and 85% of US counties. The 2027 withdrawals target specific low-performing plans rather than whole states, though Humana has not yet disclosed which counties are affected.
Humana's move reflects pressure that has been building across the Medicare Advantage market for two years. A study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, published in JAMA in February, found that approximately 2.9 million Medicare Advantage members were forced to find new plans for 2026. That represented roughly 10% of all enrollees, compared with a historical average forced disenrollment rate of about 1% from 2018 to 2024. Rural beneficiaries faced plan disruptions at double the rate of urban enrollees. In seven states, more than 40% of enrollees lost their plans, with Vermont losing 92% of Medicare Advantage coverage statewide.
For 2027, exits extend beyond Humana. Confirmed and reported withdrawals from Centene, Molina, and UnitedHealthcare put more than one million existing Medicare Advantage members in line for 2027 contraction, according to the Healthcare Labyrinth, a Medicare Advantage analysis publication. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized an average payment increase of 2.48% for 2027 Medicare Advantage plans in April, valued at roughly $13 billion industry-wide. Analysts expect that adjustment to slow, rather than reverse, exit activity.
The practical implication for brokers is that a Humana non-renewal notice is a reason to audit the full Medicare Advantage book. Any client on a plan with a weak star rating or marginal carrier profitability warrants a proactive conversation before October 15. A recent JD Power study found that overall Medicare Advantage member satisfaction has fallen 41 points since 2024, with trust declining even faster, making plan selection advice from brokers more consequential this cycle than in recent years.
Beyond which plans exist, the disruption extends to how brokers are compensated for selling them. Aetna told marketing organizations in August that it would not pay commissions on 123 Medicare Advantage plans across 33 states for the 2027 plan year, according to Medical Daily. The freeze covers nearly 780 counties, with roughly one-fifth of those in Georgia. The move follows a broader pattern from 2026. Humana, UnitedHealthcare, Anthem, Elevance Health, Centene, and regional carriers cut or eliminated commissions on selected plans during that enrollment period, according to industry coverage and state regulator filings.
CMS set the 2027 fair market value for initial Medicare Advantage commissions at $725 per member per year in most states, with renewals at $363, according to Medical Daily. Carriers may pay below those caps at their discretion. Identifying which plans are commissionable in a given county has become as operationally important as knowing which plans are available.
Humana's Q2 2026 benefit ratio came in at 91.2%, in line with management's guidance, even as individual Medicare Advantage membership grew roughly 25% year over year - the same growth surge that widened the gap between funding and medical cost trend heading into the 2027 bid cycle.
When a Medicare Advantage plan exits a member's county, federal law triggers a guaranteed-issue right to purchase a Medigap policy without medical underwriting. The insurer cannot deny the applicant or charge more based on pre-existing conditions, according to KFF. That window lasts 63 days from the loss of coverage.
For longtime Medicare Advantage enrollees seeking to return to Original Medicare, this may be the only path to Medigap coverage without facing underwriting. Outside federally protected periods, carriers in most states can decline applicants or impose higher premiums based on health history. Brokers who can explain the guaranteed-issue window and compare Medigap Plan G pricing against available replacement Advantage plans are well-positioned to deliver concrete value during a disorienting enrollment season.
The current exits are not an isolated response to one difficult year. UnitedHealthcare's full withdrawal from 16 Medicare Advantage markets for 2026, affecting roughly 180,000 policyholders, established the pattern that Humana, Centene, Molina, and Aetna have each extended in the cycles since.
