A developing El Niño is expected to take some of the energy out of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, with forecasters calling for a milder-than-normal year overall, though meteorologists warn that the risk of destructive storms remains far from gone.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal outlook, there is a 55% chance that the Atlantic season will be below average. NOAA is forecasting eight to 14 named storms, of which three to six are expected to become hurricanes and one to three could strengthen into major hurricanes. That compares with a normal season average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The softer outlook is largely tied to the expected development of a strong El Niño, the warming of parts of the central Pacific that can alter weather patterns around the world. Scientists say El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic storm formation by increasing wind shear, which disrupts the thunderstorms that can organize into hurricanes. NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said there is a 98% chance El Niño will be present this summer and an 80% chance it will reach at least moderate strength.
“It only takes one to cause real devastation and destruction,” said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero, cautioning that a quieter season does not eliminate the possibility of severe impacts in the continental United States or Hawaii.
Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said the season could be the least active since 2015, another year marked by a strong El Niño. Even so, experts note that recent years have shown how quickly activity can intensify after a slow start. Last year, for example, produced a near-record three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa, which devastated Jamaica and Cuba.
The financial stakes remain high. According to Munich Re, inflation-adjusted global damage from tropical cyclones has risen from an average of $11.4 billion a year in the 1980s to $109.7 billion annually over the past decade, with three-quarters of the damage occurring in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
While El Niño is expected to dampen Atlantic activity, forecasters say it should have the opposite effect in the Pacific, where NOAA sees a 70% chance of an above-normal eastern Pacific hurricane season.
