Commercial insurance buyers are still getting a good deal. Global rates fell an average of 6% in the second quarter of 2026, according to Marsh's latest Global Insurance Market Index - the eighth quarter in a row of declines, and a bigger drop than the 5% seen in Q1. The US, though, saw rates fall just 2%, extending its run as the world's most stubborn insurance market.
Property did most of the heavy lifting, down 12% globally. Casualty went the other way entirely, up 2%, thanks almost entirely to what's happening in the US.
Some context helps here. This is now the eighth straight quarter of decline, meaning the softening began around mid-2024, following roughly seven years of rate increases before that. The pattern is a familiar one in insurance cycles: insurers built up capital and profitability during the hard years, new entrants and reinsurers arrived to chase that profitability, and the resulting competition has been pushing prices back down ever since. For most of the world, the open question for the rest of 2026 is how long insurers let that continue before underwriting discipline reasserts itself. For the US, the question is different: whether the market ever really joins the party, or keeps moving to its own rhythm.
US composite rates fell just 2% in the quarter - the smallest movement of any region Marsh tracks, and only a modest acceleration from the 1% decline recorded in Q1. Every other region posted a bigger drop: Canada was down 7%, Europe 6%, Asia 5%, the UK 8%, and the steepest fallers were India, the Middle East and Africa (-16%), the Pacific (-13%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (-9%).
US property rates dropped 13%, putting the country among five regions with double-digit property declines, alongside IMEA (-19%), the Pacific (-15%), Latin America and the Caribbean (-14%) and the UK (-11%). Casualty told a very different story: US rates rose 7% (down from 9% in Q1), the only region anywhere to see an increase, while every other market posted a decline. Financial and professional lines nudged up 1% in the US too, again the only region moving against the global 3% decline.
Marsh points to the same ingredients as recent quarters: insurers are profitable, sitting on plenty of capital, paying less for reinsurance and earning more on investments - all of which is fueling competition for business.
John Donnelly, Marsh's president of global placement, said price isn't the only lever insurers are pulling anymore: "In many markets, in addition to competing based on price, insurers are seeking to differentiate themselves through broader coverage, expanded policy terms, and lower deductibles. While economic uncertainty has led many buyers to retain premium savings, many organizations are also continuing to invest in alternative risk strategies, including captives."
For risk managers renewing programs this year, the practical takeaway is that competitive pressure keeps building almost everywhere, even if the US isn't feeling it as sharply as its peers. Donnelly's comments point to the same idea: with capacity abundant across property, financial lines and cyber, buyers who only push on price may be leaving broader coverage, lower deductibles or better terms on the table. Casualty remains the exception, and US buyers with meaningful excess or umbrella exposure should expect continued scrutiny rather than relief. That's a conversation to have directly with your broker ahead of renewal, rather than something likely to be offered automatically.
Marsh's outlook comes with a big caveat: the weather. "Current market conditions are likely to persist absent a severe northern hemisphere storm season or string of major natural catastrophes," Donnelly said, adding that this leaves buyers with "additional opportunities to improve coverage and refine program design" before things eventually turn.
For the US specifically, that caveat carries extra weight given the market's exposure to hurricane season. Rate pressure in professional liability has already shown how quickly conditions can move once claims severity bites, even in a broadly softening market.
Agents and brokers are already seeing the divergence show up in their own numbers, too.
