Obamacare repeal unlikely as insurance revenue projections rise by billions

A new report suggests Republicans have all but given up on repealing the ACA, even as health insurers enjoy new profitability.

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Regardless of their personal stance, health insurance agents and brokers may need to make peace with Obamacare.

Although the healthcare law remains highly unpopular with Republican voters and certain members of the business community, new moves among lawmakers – as well as revised revenue projections by health insurance carriers – suggest the Affordable Care Act is here to stay.

A Saturday report in the LA Times notes that several senior Republican lawmakers have “quietly incorporated many of the law’s key projections into their own proposals,” including coverage guarantees and government assistance in purchasing health insurance.

Similarly, Republican presidential front-runner Jeb Bush has not made a potential ACA repeal part of his campaign strategy. In fact, Bush even criticized the repeal effort as recently as last year.

According to Republican pollster Whit Ayres, most influential party leaders realize a complete repeal is not in the cards and have stopped pursuing one.

“Only 18% of Americans want to go back to the system we had before because they do not want to go back to some of the problems we had,” Ayres said. “Smart Republicans in this area get that.”

Resistance to the ACA is also down among members of the insurance community, some of which enjoyed their best quarter since the law went into effect.

According to a Forbes report, UnitedHealth Group and HCA Holdings last week raised their 2015 revenue projections by billions of dollars.

Hospital operator HCA said its first quarter 2015 revenue could reach $40 billion – up from its initial outlook of between $38.5 billion and $39.5 billion. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth raised its revenue for 2015 by $2 billion; the insurance giant now expects to generate $143 billion in revenue this year.

“We knew back in January that the market was responding positively so it’s played out nicely,” said UnitedHealth Group CEO Stephen Hemsley.

However, insurer good fortune and changing political sentiment do not mean Obamacare is likely to remain unchanged. The individual mandate is still highly unpopular and could be adjusted, while provisions in the law that allow states to develop alternative systems for coverage could make health insurance a very different game state to state.

And that’s not to mention the pending Supreme Court case, which will decide if millions of people can keep their government-provided health insurance subsidies.

Yet even considering these realities, Republican proposals to replace the ACA in the event subsidies are struck down closely resemble the ACA itself. A plan from Senators Richard Burr and Orrin Hatch would guarantee health insurance coverage to all Americans – even if they are sick – as well as allow adults up to age 26 to remain on their parents’ plans, ban insurance companies from imposing lifetime limits on coverage, and create a tax subsidy system to help consumers afford coverage.

“This acknowledges that the ACA is the law and…you have to start with what is there and build on it,” former Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told the LA Times. “The recipe is to begin pushing it philosophically to the right.”
 

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