By Lyle Adriano
A joint study, entitled “Increased Threat of Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Flooding During the Anthropogenic Era,” by Penn State University, Rutgers University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Princeton University and Tufts University advises that the chance of regular and major flooding in the New York City area is high and getting higher.
In the study, researchers compared the rising of sea levels and storm surge heights during the prehistoric and modern eras. They discovered that the combined increases of each raised the chances of what used to be considered a calamitous 500-year flood now expected as often as once every 25 years. “A storm that occurred once in seven generations is now occurring twice in a generation,” explained Benjamin Horton, Rutgers marine and coastal sciences professor.
The study determined that since the late 19th century, the sea level has risen much faster than in the previous thousand years. Sea levels directly impact the effect of storm surges, and research suggests that had the levels not increased, Hurricane Sandy would not have been nearly as devastating.
Researchers involved in the study recognized that while the main causes of climate changes in the prehistoric era were natural, later human actions have affected sea level heights and other climate-related factors. New York’s “...intense concentrations of population, economic production, and static infrastructure... indicates the necessity for risk management solutions,” Horton warned.
Following Hurricane Sandy, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) distributed a revised floodplain map to replace one completed in 1983. The new map plots an even larger flood zone, doubling the previous number of buildings affected and increasing the number of affected residents by an overwhelming 83%.
Areas designated as floodplains often have higher insurance premiums. Although city officials have produced a map of their own with a significantly smaller flood zone in an effort to enable property owners to pay less for insurance, one has to think flood insurance could be a bargain compared with the alternative.
