Insured onshore property losses from Hurricane Isaias will likely total between $1 billion and $2 billion, according to Verisk's catastrophe and risk solutions business.
The estimate covers wind and privately insured storm surge from the storm’s landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Verisk said wind will account for the vast majority of losses, and that flooding from rainfall is not expected to be significant.
Verisk’s range is lower than Cotality’s estimate of $2 billion to $3 billion for wind and surge losses, published after landfall. Both are far below the mid-single-digit-billion range that BMS Group had suggested before the storm hit - putting the figure at $4 billion to $6 billion.
Isaias came ashore near Destin on October 9 as a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. It had peaked at Category 3 with 120 mph winds over unusually warm Gulf waters before increasing wind shear weakened it. The storm became post-tropical over Alabama early the next morning.
Verisk said the worst wind damage was west of the landfall point, particularly in Santa Rosa County and northeastern Escambia County. Damage included roofs, structures, fallen trees and widespread debris. In Okaloosa County, the most common cause of damage was trees falling onto homes. Power cuts were widespread across the Panhandle, with some counties reporting outages affecting most residents. The storm also brought down trees and caused further power cuts in Alabama and Georgia.
Verisk’s figure covers residential, commercial and industrial property and automobiles, including building, contents and time-element cover. It excludes a long list of potential costs, so the final industry bill is likely to be higher than the modeled range.
Losses paid by the National Flood Insurance Program, uninsured properties, infrastructure, marine and pleasure boats, offshore assets, tornado damage and loss adjustment expenses are all excluded.
Verisk’s figure also leaves out losses inflated by litigation, assignment of benefits fraud or social inflation, as well as any surge losses paid on wind-only policies because of government intervention.
The two modeled estimates confirm that Isaias is a manageable event for the industry. It is unlikely to change reinsurance pricing at January 1 renewals. For brokers and their clients in the Panhandle, though, the nature of the damage matters more than the industry total.
A storm dominated by wind, with tree-fall as the main cause of damage, will produce many homeowners claims of modest size. That puts percentage hurricane deductibles in focus. For many clients, a 2% or 5% deductible on the dwelling value may cover much or all of a tree-on-roof claim. Brokers should prepare clients for that before they file.
Verisk’s exclusion of losses inflated by litigation and assignment of benefits fraud is also worth watching. Isaias is the first significant test of Florida’s recent claims reforms since Milton in 2024.
