More than 2.5 million properties across the 10 most wildfire-exposed states in the western US now carry moderate or greater wildfire risk, representing nearly $1.4 trillion in combined reconstruction cost value, according to Cotality's 2026 Wildfire Risk Report, released August 12.
California still carries the largest single share of that exposure - 1.28 million at-risk properties worth an estimated $850 billion in reconstruction costs. But almost half of all at-risk properties across the top 10 states, 49.9%, sit outside California's borders. Colorado and Texas alone account for nearly 560,000 at-risk properties and $252 billion in reconstruction value, nearly matching the combined $277 billion carried by the remaining seven states: Oregon, Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, Montana, Washington and Utah.
Los Angeles remains the single most exposed metro area, with close to 250,000 at-risk properties worth $209 billion. But four of the 10 most exposed metro areas nationally now sit outside California. Austin leads that group with more than 100,000 at-risk properties and $49.2 billion in reconstruction value, followed by San Antonio, Denver and Spokane - a pattern that tracks population growth pushing more homes into wildland-urban interface zones in states not traditionally associated with major fire activity.
That geographic spread is consistent with Triple-I's own analysis earlier in 2026, which put roughly a third of all homes in the continental US - more than 46 million properties - inside zones carrying some level of wildfire exposure, and flagged record wildfire seasons in Florida, Georgia and Nebraska as evidence that underwriting models built around California's experience are being tested in markets well beyond it.
Cotality's report puts particular weight on conflagration - the process by which fire moves from wildland vegetation into a built neighborhood and spreads structure to structure, rather than burning as a contained wildland fire. Adding conflagration potential to a standard wildfire risk score can add as many as 40 points to that score, pushing meaningful hazard into neighborhoods legacy risk maps had previously classified as low risk.
For brokers, this is the most practically important finding in the report. A client whose property risk score has increased without any physical change to the property or its surroundings may be experiencing the effect of conflagration modeling being applied for the first time. Understanding that the score reflects structure density, building materials, wind patterns and ember exposure - not just proximity to wildland vegetation - is what enables a broker to explain the change to a client and identify what steps might improve it.
Jamie Knippen, Cotality's director of hazard insights, said a higher-than-expected risk score should be read as useful information rather than a penalty.
"This represents a significant opportunity for the entire market: it empowers carriers to move away from broad-brush risk assessments and safely expand their underwriting footprint, and actively rewards homeowners who invest in resilience," Knippen said. Carriers accounting for structure density, building materials, wind patterns and ember exposure upfront can ensure a home is insured for the fire risk it actually faces - not just the wildland fire itself, but the fire spreading from a neighboring structure.
The report's property-level mitigation scoring found a wide gap in expected losses tied to preparedness. Homes in the top 10% of mitigation scores carry expected losses roughly 78% below the statewide average, while homes in the bottom 10% run more than 10 times that average - about $47 in expected loss for every $1 carried by the best-prepared homes.
State policy is now catching up with that data. Colorado's HB25-1182, signed in May 2025 and effective July 1, 2026, requires insurers operating in the state to disclose wildfire scores and classifications to homeowners, offer discounts tied to mitigation work, and defend those scores if a homeowner appeals them. California's Sustainable Insurance Strategy has taken a parallel path, allowing insurers to use forward-looking wildfire models in ratemaking for the first time - provided those models account for property, community and landscape-level mitigation including home hardening and defensible space. Verisk became the first vendor to complete that regulatory review in July 2025.
For brokers placing property coverage in wildfire-exposed markets, the practical implication runs in two directions. First, clients with elevated risk scores need to understand what conflagration modeling measures and which mitigation steps - defensible space, fire-resistant roofing and siding, ember-resistant vents - carriers are now required to recognize in pricing. Second, as Colorado's disclosure requirements take effect and California's modeling framework embeds itself in the market, brokers should expect to field client questions about how specific scores were calculated and how to challenge them. Answering those questions accurately now requires working knowledge of conflagration risk and mitigation scoring, not just zone-level hazard classification.
