Large and complex property rates in North America fell an average of 14.5% in the second quarter of 2026, the steepest drop in a decade, according to Willis. The broker has also found early signs that rate increases in excess casualty may be nearing their peak, although auto liability and excess lines for high-hazard risks remain under pressure from nuclear verdicts and social inflation.
The findings appear in the fall 2026 Insurance Marketplace Realities report from Willis, a WTW business. The report covers rate predictions and market conditions across more than 30 commercial lines in North America.
The 14.5% decline compares with an 8.4% fall a year earlier, and Willis linked the larger cut to intensifying competition among insurers. Rates for shared and layered programs involving five or more carriers fell 23.41% on average, up from 14.57% in the second quarter of 2025.
Property pricing has now moved from the depths of the 2018 to 2024 hard market toward levels last seen in 2019, according to Willis.
The Baldwin Group recorded an 8.1% fall in commercial property pricing in the second quarter, its fifth straight quarterly decline. Casualty increases in its book slowed over the same period, with commercial auto and general liability up 4.5% each and umbrella up 5%, compared with 5.7%, 6.1% and 8.2% in the first quarter.
Read more: Property rate declines give brokers more renewal leverage
For high-hazard risks, general and excess liability lines, including lead umbrella, remain under pressure. Willis said new capacity is partly behind the early signs of a peak. That capacity has come through broker-led facilities, including WTW's own Gemini, and through newly established managing general agents (MGAs) and underwriting agents.
Gemini, which Willis launched for risks incepting from September 1, 2025, is a digital auto-follow facility backed by Lloyd's syndicates and available only to Willis clients. It provides up to 12.5% of capacity on in-scope placements and applies a 2.5% discount to lead pricing.
Marsh's latest Global Insurance Market Index points in a similar direction. US casualty rates rose 7% in the second quarter, down from 9% in the first, and the US was the only region where casualty rates increased.
The upper layers remain costly, however. Marsh found risk-adjusted umbrella and excess rates rose 15%, and some insurers limited individual umbrella and excess capacity to $10 million because of litigation concerns.
MGA capacity continues to grow. MGA direct premium written reached $102.6 billion in 2025, according to statutory filings, up 12% from 2024 and more than double the roughly 5% growth of the wider property and casualty market.
Lawmakers have also started to target litigation funding. According to Lockton, North Carolina has banned third-party litigation funding, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee have passed disclosure laws since early 2025, and Senator Chuck Grassley introduced a federal transparency bill in February.
Insured catastrophe losses worldwide reached $107 billion in 2025, the sixth year in a row above $100 billion, Willis said. The first half of 2026 produced the lowest total since 2020.
Aon put first-half insured catastrophe losses at about $47 billion, and global reinsurance capital at about $790 billion at the end of the first quarter. It expects competition to remain favorable into the January 1, 2027 renewals, provided the rest of the year brings no significant insured catastrophe.
The Atlantic has so far stayed calm. In mid-September, the 2026 season set a satellite-era record for the longest stretch without a hurricane, and Atlantic storm activity was running at about 7% of normal for the time of year, according to an Associated Press report. The season runs until November 30.
Cyber rates are holding roughly flat, with movements ranging from a 5% decrease to a 5% increase. Willis urged buyers to reinvest any savings in higher limits, because ransomware and data exfiltration threats enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) keep rising.
Marsh found US cyber rates fell 2% in the second quarter, matching the first-quarter decline. AM Best reported the US cyber loss ratio rose 4.3 percentage points to 53% in 2025, its first time above 50% since the pandemic-era ransomware surge.
Read next: Cyber rates keep falling, but how much lower can they go?
The report, The Specialist View, examines how specialization across lines helps clients manage accelerating technology risk, including new exposures tied to AI and investment in data infrastructure.
Capital spending by the five largest hyperscalers is forecast to exceed $600 billion in 2026, and about 75% of it is tied to physical AI infrastructure, according to Swiss Re Institute. The same research expects data center insurance premiums to rise from $10.6 billion to $24.2 billion by 2030.
"The pace of change, particularly around AI and data infrastructure, means brokers can't operate in silos," said Jackie Bolig, head of placement and broking solutions for North America at Willis.
Bolig said the gap between lines is where clients now need the most guidance. "Property buyers have room to negotiate this cycle. Casualty and specialty buyers need to plan for a market that is still correcting for verdict severity and emerging technology risk."
