‘Metastasizing almost every day’: These risks are redefining global cargo

‘The past doesn't always predict the future, but it frequently informs it,’ warns Intact’s expert
‘Metastasizing almost every day’: These risks are redefining global cargo
MARINE
By Emily Douglas
Oct 28, 2026

The cargo insurance market was valued at $69.84 billion in 2024, according to SNS, and could reach $101.43 billion by 2032. What’s more, research from IUMI found that global cargo premiums reached $24.3 billion in 2025, marking a 6.9% increase on the previous year.

But with such big business comes even bigger risks.

Speaking to Insurance Business, Sam Hellebush, President of US Marine at Intact Insurance, explained that in the face of severe supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, strengthening cargo resilience should be front of mind for businesses heading into 2027.

“Resilience here is an increasingly competitive advantage - and not just a risk management function. There’s more concern as people see additional pain points, and disruption is no longer the exception. There’s geopolitical tensions sparking port congestion, there’s labour shortages [compounded by] severe weather. We're seeing more issues with climate change and shifting trade routes too.

“Businesses ought to assume that some disruption will occur - but remember, it's not about preventing every disruption. It's about ensuring the business can absorb that disruption, adapt quickly and continue servicing their customers. That includes a resilient cargo strategy built around flexibility, visibility, and preparedness to maintain continuity - because that's the goal. And that goal includes deliberate discussion of inventory strategy, which is something that we've seen with our customers a lot.”

But being hyper-focused on just one element of the cargo chain can also be dangerous. As Hellebush told IB, over-reliance on a single routing option, carrier, supplier, or mode of transportation can be a point of failure here too.  

“As is the assumption that if cargo arrives undamaged, the shipment was successful because, in reality, a delayed shipment can create significant business interruption costs - even when the goods arrive intact,” he added. “So while it's impossible to eliminate risk entirely, understanding where risk exists can help businesses ensure that they respond effectively when conditions change.”

‘What happens if?’: The power of partnering with the right insurer

For many companies, this strategy demands a rethink. Instead of considering risk as a curative issue, leaders should look at being proactive and preventative in identifying issues before they even arise.

“Businesses should consider conducting structured risk management assessments before shipments,” added Hellebush. “And this is especially important for high-value, time-sensitive, or business-critical cargo where there's DSU or delay in startup exposure. We frequently see this when we underwrite project cargo - and that's why it's important for businesses to partner with their insurance carrier, who can provide seasoned risk management expertise in evaluating the shipment itself.”

Here, leaders should also start by asking, “What happens if?” What happens if the shipment is delayed by a week? What happens if there is an unseen risk? Because that speaks to the delay in startup exposure that frequently can be one of the most damaging exposures out there, especially when you consider some of the limitations in the global supply chain.

“If they're damaged in shipment, you need to think about how you’re going to source a replacement part,” added Hellebush. “Customers should also evaluate routes for transit time, reliability and exposure to geopolitical issues which, unfortunately, seem to be metastasizing almost every day. Labor disruptions, weather events, and port congestion, carrier performance and operational history are also issues that should be looked at. Because the past doesn't always predict the future, but it frequently informs it.”

Security here is also a major factor, especially with the advent of AI and extremely high-value server shipments uniquely susceptible to security lapses.

“For businesses, it’s about confirming responsibilities across the supply chain, having clearly defined handoff points to prevent confusion when issues arise. We've seen this with many of our claims,” added Hellebush. “And unfortunately, that is an issue that can be prevented at the outset of the shipment.

“Finally, evaluate your insurance policy to determine whether the available coverage aligns with these risks. A delay in startup is not always covered, and any coverage will depend on the policy’s specific terms, conditions, limitations, and exclusions.”

Geopolitical tensions wreak havoc on supply lines

And the current political climate isn’t making this process easier. In fact, geopolitical instability and trade policy friction can act as significant ‘risk multipliers’ for US cargo and global supply lines, with shipping volatility affected by tariff changes and escalating geopolitical conflict. For businesses, a key safeguard is planning ahead as best they can.

And that starts with data.

“We all have more access to different kinds of data today, including businesses, and they also have access to supply chain data that may not have been available before,” added Hellebush. “However, even though they have it, they may struggle to translate that information into decision-making.

“Here, businesses should really focus on route performance data due to geopolitical risk, carrier reliability metrics, claims history, port congestion trends, weather intelligence, geopolitical developments as well as inventory and customer demand forecasts. Contingency planning really starts with identifying the shipments that would have the greatest business impact if affected. Once those critical shipments are identified, organizations can establish alternative routes, backup carriers, inventory buffers, and communication protocols before issues emerge.”

For businesses, all of this begins with starting an honest and open conversation with their brokers and their insurers before their next shipment goes out.

“Insurance remains a very necessary financial safeguard - because the most valuable conversations happen before a claim occurs,” explained Hellebush. “Intact specialists can provide insight into emerging trends, common causes of loss, route-specific risks, carrier exposures, and best practices for protection. At Intact, we have the data but we also have the expertise in identifying single points of failure on a product-specific basis. We can help identify hidden vulnerabilities within transportation, storage, packaging, handling, and contractual arrangements – all of which ties back to Project Cargo. We have resources that include on-site risk control and monitoring of how high-value items are packaged and shipped.”

And while big headline political issues tend to steal the spotlight when it comes to cargo concerns, as Hellebush told IB it’s often the smaller, internal problems that cause the most damage.

“Operational issues are still responsible for the majority of cargo losses,” he explained. “Those may not be seen internally because they're focused on new or more immediate risks, but those are ones that we, as seasoned professionals, can identify. With Intact, those partnerships between risk managers, logistics teams, brokers, and insurers can proactively strengthen supply chain resilience.”

About Intact Insurance Specialty Solutions
Throughout the United States, Intact Insurance Specialty Solutions' underwriting companies offer a broad range of specialty insurance products through independent agencies, regional and national brokers, wholesalers and managing general agencies. Each business is managed by an experienced team of specialty insurance professionals focused on a specific customer group or industry segment, and providing distinct products and tailored coverages and services. Targeted solutions include group accident and health; commercial and contract surety; entertainment; environmental; excess property; financial institutions; financial services; inland marine; management liability; ocean marine; renewable energy; technology; trade credit; and tuition refund. For further information about U.S. products and services visit: intactspecialty.com. Intact Insurance Specialty Solutions is a marketing brand for the insurance company subsidiaries of Intact Insurance Group USA LLC, an indirect subsidiary of Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC), the largest provider of property and casualty insurance in Canada that has successfully exported its strengths across North America, the UK, and Europe. Its growing commercial and specialty solutions network now spans over 150 countries. With a customer-driven mindset, Intact has expanded its operations to include insurance distribution, restoration and prevention. IFC's business has grown organically and through acquisitions to almost $25 billion of total annual operating direct premiums written (DPW). The insurance company subsidiaries of Intact Insurance Group USA LLC include Atlantic Specialty Insurance Company, a New York insurer, which wholly owns Homeland Insurance Company of New York, a New York insurer, Homeland Insurance Company of Delaware, a Delaware insurer, OBI America Insurance Company, a Pennsylvania insurer, and OBI National Insurance Company, a Pennsylvania insurer. Each of these insurers maintains its principal place of business at 605 Highway 169 N, Plymouth, MN 55441. For information about Intact Financial Corporation, visit: intactfc.com.

This article is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute and is not intended to take the place of legal or risk management advice. Readers should consult their own counsel or other representatives for any such advice. Any and all third-party websites or sources referred to herein are for informational purposes only and are not affiliated with or endorsed by Intact Insurance Group USA LLC (“Intact”). Intact hereby disclaims any and all liability arising out of the information contained herein.

This article was created in partnership with Intact.

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