The pace of US commercia property price cuts has stopped accelerating, while casualty lines are moving in different directions, according to The Baldwin Group's third-quarter Market Pulse report.
Commercial property pricing fell 8.0% in the third quarter, almost unchanged from an 8.1% decline in the second quarter. It was the sixth consecutive quarter of decreases, but the first in which the decline didn’t deepen.
“Property is no longer getting softer faster, but it is still delivering real opportunity for buyers who come to renewal with current valuations and strong loss control documentation,” said Leslie Nylund, national managing director of broking and insurance company partnerships at Baldwin.
Increases in primary casualty lines continued to slow. Commercial auto pricing rose 2.9%, down from 4.5% in the second quarter and 5.7% in the first. That is the lowest quarterly reading since Baldwin’s index began in the third quarter of 2021. General liability rose 3.5%, the third straight quarterly slowdown since a peak of 9.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Excess pricing moved the other way. Umbrella pricing rose 5.6%, up from 5.0% in the second quarter, although still below the first quarter’s 8.2%.
Nylund said casualty is on a fundamentally different path from property. She pointed to social inflation, litigation funding, nuclear verdicts and emerging liabilities as reasons that traditional underwriting assumptions are becoming less reliable, leading to a market where coverage breadth, jurisdiction, industry and loss history produce very different renewal outcomes.
Workers’ compensation pricing was effectively flat, down 0.1%, after a 1.0% decline in the first quarter. Baldwin said favorable comp pricing has likely reached, or is very close to, its floor.
Pricing also firmed in two management and technology lines. Cyber pricing rose 2.0%, up from 0.4% in the second quarter and the highest reading since early 2023. Private management liability rose 3.1%, up from 0.9%, while public company D&O fell 1.8%, the same as in the second quarter.
Baldwin’s index reflects rate changes along with changes in exposures, limits and deductibles across its clients, so it shows direction rather than exact rates.
The findings are broadly consistent with the latest Ivans Index, which showed general liability renewal increases slowing to just over 3% by September and commercial auto to about 3.3%.
Baldwin expects property to keep softening into the fourth quarter, with late-season storms the main risk. For brokers, the levelling off in property price cuts suggests that the biggest rate reductions may already have passed. Clients that delayed restoring limits or broadening terms may want to act at their next renewal, while carriers are still competing.
In casualty, the split between primary and excess is the key point. Primary general liability and auto are easing, but umbrella pricing is firming, so total program costs may not fall as much as primary rates suggest. Clean, well-documented accounts may benefit from more competition, while high-hazard and litigation-exposed risks should expect little relief. Baldwin said tort reform is unlikely to affect pricing meaningfully before 2027, and that the January 1 casualty reinsurance renewals will be an important signal for excess pricing.
The rise in cyber pricing, after several years of flat or falling rates, is also worth watching. Brokers should prepare clients for the possibility that the soft cyber market is ending, especially clients with weaker security controls.
