US commercial insurance prices rose 2.9% in Q4 2025, extending the pattern of moderating increases seen earlier in the year, according to WTW's latest Commercial Lines Insurance Pricing Survey (CLIPS).
The retrospective survey, which compares premiums for policies underwritten in a given quarter with the same coverage lines a year earlier, showed an aggregate price increase of 2.9% in Q4 2025. That is down from 3.8% in both Q2 and Q3 2025 and sharply lower than the 5.6% increase recorded in Q4 2024.
Price growth continued to ease across most major commercial lines. Commercial property again recorded price decreases, while general/products liability increases continued to moderate. Commercial multi‑peril and businessowners policy (BOP) business also saw smaller increases than in the prior quarter. Excess/umbrella liability remained the line with the largest price increases, though at a lower level than earlier in 2025, and commercial auto continued to post strong rate growth.
By segment, small and mid‑market accounts saw more moderate increases than in previous periods, while large account pricing continued to rise but at a slower pace. Several other lines maintained price decreases, reinforcing the broader trend of moderation across the market.
“Commercial insurance pricing continued to moderate in the fourth quarter, reflecting a more stable market,” said Yi Jing, senior director, Insurance Consulting and Technology (ICT), WTW. “While some lines continue to see increases, others are flattening or declining, highlighting a more measured approach across the market.”
Property softens while casualty remains firm
The CLIPS results confirmed that the hard‑market phase that began around 2019 has clearly rolled over for many property and specialty lines. Competitive pressure, additional capacity and improved reinsurance terms have all contributed to rate softening in property, particularly for well‑protected, non‑cat‑exposed risks.
By contrast, casualty underwriters continue to face elevated loss‑cost trends, driven by social inflation, higher verdicts and claims severity. That is reflected in continued upward pressure on commercial auto and excess/umbrella rates, even as the pace of increases slows. The divergence underscores the need for line‑by‑line differentiation in pricing, underwriting appetite and capital allocation.
The data also highlighted an ongoing bifurcation between “clean” and distressed risks. Accounts with strong loss histories and solid risk management are seeing flat or negative renewals in some lines, while those with challenging occupancies, prior losses or heavy casualty exposure are still experiencing above‑average increases, higher retentions or tighter coverage terms.
Implications for underwriting, capital and distribution
With aggregate rate increases now back in the low single digits, the pricing tailwind that supported earnings and reserve strengthening in recent years is fading. Underwriters can no longer rely on broad‑based rate momentum to offset inflation, loss‑trend drift or prior‑year development.
On the property side, the focus is shifting toward tighter terms and conditions, more granular cat and aggregate management, and closer scrutiny of valuations. In casualty, the priority remains maintaining rate adequacy relative to trend, particularly in auto liability and umbrella, where large‑loss volatility and aggregation risk remain elevated.
The moderation in primary rates also raised questions about how far competition can go without eroding margins, especially if loss‑cost trends re‑accelerate or if 2026 brings outsized cat or casualty events.
On the distribution side, brokers are seeing a much more negotiable market than in 2020–2023. Incumbent carriers are generally more willing to defend business, and new markets are re‑entering classes they had previously scaled back.
Outlook for 2026 commercial P&C
WTW noted that CLIPS is a backward‑looking view of pricing and claims‑cost inflation. The forward‑looking Insurance Marketplace Realities series pointed to continued moderation in 2026 for many property and financial lines, with casualty expected to remain firmer for longer.
Other market indicators also suggested that, absent a major shift in large‑loss activity or macroeconomic conditions, current dynamics are likely to persist into 2026, with buyers gaining leverage in most lines, but casualty underwriters continuing to push for rate adequacy to keep pace with trend.
That trend points to a year in which underwriting discipline, portfolio mix and capital management will matter more than simple rate movement in determining performance across US commercial P&C.
