Commercial insurance rates in the US fell 2% in the second quarter of 2026, continuing a broad global softening trend, but the headline number conceals a market that is moving in two directions at once. According to Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index (GIMI) for Q2 2026, US property rates dropped 13% while casualty rates rose 7%, extending a run of consecutive US casualty increases that has persisted through multiple years of broader market softening, according to Marsh.
A client renewing a property program is operating in a different market from one renewing a casualty tower, and the gap between those two experiences is wider now than at almost any point in the current cycle.
The 13% property rate decrease in Q2 2026 was the eighth consecutive quarterly decline, and for larger accounts the relief was sharper still. Catastrophe-exposed programs with premiums above $1 million saw rates fall 20%, according to Marsh, while non-catastrophe programs below that threshold dropped 10%. Capacity is abundant, underwriting scrutiny has eased, and insurers are competing actively to retain and win business, in some cases lowering submission and valuation requirements and relying more on historical data than detailed risk information.
That competition has also opened up structural options. Clients have been able to use the pricing environment to redesign programs, increase limits, and reduce retentions, though Marsh notes that loss-affected accounts and those with thinner risk management data have seen less consistent outcomes.
The soft property market broadly matches what commercial renewal rate data from the Ivans Index showed building across Q2 2026, with the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers (CIAB) reporting average commercial premiums fell across all account sizes in Q1 2026 for the first time in 33 consecutive quarters. That milestone underscored how far conditions had shifted from the hard market years.
US casualty rates rose 7% in Q2 2026, down slightly from 9% in the prior two quarters but still an increase in a global market where every other region reported casualty rate declines. Excluding workers’ compensation, which continues to attract the most capacity and competition, the increase was 11%.
Auto liability remained the most pressured line. Rate increases were commonly double-digit, capacity was constrained, and insurers remained selective. The occasional exception came when auto exposure was packaged alongside attractive lines, particularly workers’ compensation, which gave some accounts a path to better outcomes.
Umbrella and excess were similarly tight. Risk-adjusted rates rose 15%, and some insurers capped individual risk capacity at $10 million, citing exposure to what Marsh describes as an adverse US litigation environment.
Rising claim frequency and severity sit at the center of that environment, and not in isolation. Social inflation and nuclear verdicts, jury awards above $10 million, have become structural cost pressures rather than episodic events, pushing attachment points higher and driving volatility in sectors with heavy real estate, fleet, or operations exposure in high-litigation states. Emerging liabilities, including per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), ultra-processed foods, and human trafficking, added further selective underwriting pressure on top of existing casualty challenges.
Directors and officers (D&O) liability reversed direction in Q2 2026, moving from a 3% decline in the prior quarter to a 1% increase, as some insurers reduced capacity in response to earlier rate decreases. High excess layers remained difficult to place, while flat renewals were common in the absence of significant claims activity or recent transactions.
Fiduciary liability rates rose, driven by ongoing Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) excessive fee litigation and rising defense costs. The line has drawn attention in part because claims theories are still evolving, and health plan oversight cases could generate additional claims activity.
Cyber rates continued to ease, down 2% in Q2 2026, a trend that has run since the second quarter of 2023. Capacity held broadly stable despite consolidation activity in the cyber market, though securing reductions increasingly required a wider group of insurers. Underwriters are paying close attention to artificial intelligence (AI) exposure, third-party vendor risk, and ransomware, and data breach and privacy claims remain a consistent source of cost pressure even as headline rates fall.
John Donnelly, president of global placement at Marsh, noted that while pricing continued to ease in many areas, geopolitical uncertainty and broader economic concerns were leading many buyers to retain premium savings rather than reinvesting them in additional coverage. Marsh noted in its global commentary that the current environment continues to present opportunities for insureds to enhance their program structures.
The US market’s position as the only region with rising casualty rates gives that observation particular weight. The property window is open, but the casualty bill is still running, and the two rarely settle at the same time.
