The US is experiencing a ‘hurricane drought’ with none of category 3 or above in the last ten years. A report published in Geophysical Research Letters this week showed that the last major hurricane was in October 2005 when Hurricane Wilma hit south Florida. There hasn’t been a longer period without a major hurricane since 1851. Kelly Hereid, a researcher with ACE Tempest Re, who co-authored the report, says their modeling found that a break of this long is very unusual; in fact it’s estimated to occur just once in 177 years. The report says that there is no reason to believe that a longer break increases the risk of a hurricane in the coming year. It concludes that the chance of a major storm hitting the Atlantic or Gulf coasts in any given year is between 39 and 41 per cent.
