One in every 84 pedestrians crossing a school-zone crosswalk in Canada came close to being struck by a vehicle, according to a November 2026 study commissioned by the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA). Researchers recorded 660 near-miss incidents across 30 crosswalks in 11 cities over five school days – giving auto underwriters and brokers a city-level, infrastructure-indexed picture of pedestrian collision risk specific to Canadian school zones.
The cities monitored were Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Toronto, St. Catharines, Montreal, and Halifax. Researchers from Miovision, a global intelligent traffic technology firm, and Fireseeds North Infrastructure, a road safety engineering firm based in Winnipeg, used video cameras and AI analysis to record incidents across local, collector, and arterial roads – all established routes to schools, identified by participating municipalities.
“CAA Clubs have been involved in programs to keep our kids safe on the way to school for decades. This study shows there is a lot of work still to do. This groundbreaking work not only shines a light on the ongoing danger but offers evidence of what can work to reduce risks,” said Ian Jack, vice president of public affairs for CAA National.
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The study’s most consequential finding concerns infrastructure variables rather than driver behaviour alone.
Crosswalks equipped with a traffic signal, stop sign, or roundabout had a near-miss rate 20 times lower than those with none of these controls, according to the CAA report. Crossings without reduced-speed signage had a 67% higher overall conflict rate than those with it. Zebra markings – the parallel white stripes painted across a crosswalk surface – were associated with 56% fewer left- and right-turn near misses.
The study also found that near misses were more than twice as likely when vehicles were exiting intersections than when entering them.
For brokers placing coverage for school boards, municipalities, or fleet operators with vehicles travelling school-zone routes, the research provides a framework for assessing site-specific exposure that has not previously existed in quantified form in Canada. Each of the infrastructure variables the study identifies – traffic controls, speed signage, pavement markings – can be verified against existing municipal records, making this data actionable at the point of renewal.
Craig Milligan, principal study author and engineer at Fireseeds North Infrastructure in Winnipeg, described the research as the first of its kind at this scale in North America.
“Intelligent mobility solutions are gaining traction in cities across Canada. Paired with true AI analysis, they are identifying and analyzing issues faster than ever before, helping municipalities recommend and implement life-saving solutions sooner – in this case, for some of our most vulnerable pedestrians,” Milligan said.
Intelligent mobility solutions refers to technology-driven systems – such as AI-analysed camera feeds and sensor networks – that monitor and respond to traffic conditions in real time.
One finding challenges a common assumption about when school-zone risk peaks.
While 242 combined incidents were recorded during the 7am to 9am and 3pm to 5pm windows typically used to define school hours, the single highest concentration of incidents – 94 – occurred between 5pm and 6pm.
As the CAA report notes, school playgrounds, fields, and buildings remain active community spaces well beyond formal instructional hours. Any coverage assessment that prices school-zone risk on the basis of core school hours alone is missing the period of highest recorded exposure. For fleet operators and municipal clients with vehicles active in these areas during evening hours, the gap between assumed and actual risk windows is a conversation worth having at renewal.
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The CAA data arrives in the context of a durable national picture. Pedestrians accounted for 15.2% of all road fatalities in Canada in 2023, with 298 deaths recorded, according to Transport Canada’s National Collision Database, published in May 2025. The same dataset recorded 1,964 total road fatalities in 2023 – the highest annual count in a decade.
Under Canadian auto insurance frameworks, pedestrian-involved collisions generate liability claims through the at-fault driver’s third-party coverage where a driver is found responsible, and accident benefits claims through that same policy where the pedestrian carries no auto insurance of their own.
The CAA has indicated it will use the findings to engage with provincial and municipal decision-makers on crosswalk improvements. Changes to traffic controls, speed signage, or pavement markings in any of the study’s 11 cities could, over time, alter the underlying risk profile of those routes. For underwriters active in municipal liability and commercial auto lines across Canada, monitoring that infrastructure data as it changes is now a practical option in a way it was not before this study.
The full study findings are available through the Canadian Automobile Association.
