Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) is highlighting a decade-long surge in auto theft losses even as a new RCMP fraud pilot recovered 392 stolen vehicles worth $28 million - underscoring a mechanism IBC says goes beyond simple theft to fraud at the point of financing and insurance.
IBC, responding to the RCMP's recovery of 392 stolen vehicles worth an estimated $28 million through Project NoCargo, a pilot launched in June 2025, pointed to its own longer-run data to frame the announcement. IBC data shows the value of theft claims in 2025 was $724 million, up from $269 million ten years earlier - a 169% increase in claim value over the decade, even as claims volume rose a comparatively modest 38% over the same period.
From 2024 to 2025, the number of theft claims dropped 24% nationwide, while the value of theft claims fell 30%, IBC said, calling it a sign of progress from law enforcement and government action. Liam McGuinty, IBC's vice-president of federal affairs, said: "The recent decrease in auto thefts is the result of concrete actions by governments of all orders, as well as law enforcement."
It's worth noting that a separate figure sometimes cited alongside IBC's, a $900 million estimate for 2025, comes from Équité Association's own 2025 Auto Theft Trend Report, published in February. That figure isn't a correction or update of IBC's $724 million total; it's a separately calculated estimate from a different organization, and the two shouldn't be read as directly interchangeable when tracking the trend over time.
How much of the national decline is directly attributable to NoCargo specifically, as opposed to the broader set of government and law enforcement measures McGuinty references, isn't clear from the available data. NoCargo's 392 recovered vehicles represent a small fraction of the more than 25,000 theft claims IBC recorded for 2025 nationally, suggesting the pilot is one contributing factor among several rather than the primary driver of the year-over-year improvement.
The RCMP recovery isn't simple theft recovery. Criminals steal or manufacture personal credentials, use them to apply for auto loans, then take out an insurance policy on the same vehicle "with the intention of committing fraud," the RCMP said. The 392 vehicles were intercepted in Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver, after CBSA referred suspected fraud cases to the RCMP for investigation.
Équité Association, the industry's national fraud body, has documented the same mechanism independently: identity theft starts when a criminal gains access to a victim's personal information - through stolen documents or scams - and is then used to perform complex insurance scams, often tied to organized crime. Équité's 2025 report found an 18% year-over-year drop in theft alongside its own $900 million estimate for total insurance claims tied to auto theft in 2025, and separately flagged a 72% year-over-year increase in vehicle finance fraud detected at the ports of Montreal and Halifax specifically. RCMP commissioner Mike Duheme said the pilot "is helping stop the flow of Canadian cars obtained through fraud" and called it evidence that manufacturers, insurers, shippers, and governments must keep working together.
Verify financing and identity documents closely on new auto policies, especially recently purchased or financed vehicles. IBC's data shows theft-related claim costs remain nearly triple 2015 levels even after 2025's decline, so underwriting scrutiny on high-theft vehicle classes should stay elevated. Brokers in or near Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver should treat financing-identity mismatches as an early fraud signal, particularly given Équité's finding of a 72% year-over-year rise in finance fraud detected at the Montreal and Halifax ports specifically.
