The Parti Québécois (PQ) is projected to form a minority government in Quebec after Monday's provincial election, putting a sovereigntist party in charge of several files that matter to the province's insurers and brokers.
According to CBC, the PQ is projected to win 59 seats in the newly enlarged 127-seat National Assembly, five short of the 64 needed for a majority, on less than 30% of the popular vote. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will become premier. The Liberals are projected to form the official opposition with 40 seats, the Conservatives to take 19 and Québec Solidaire nine. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which won a large majority four years ago, is projected to lose every seat, including that of leader Christine Fréchette.
It is the first time the PQ has formed a government since 2012.
The most immediate insurance file the new government inherits is flood risk. In the run-up to the vote, the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) called on all parties to commit to climate adaptation. It asked for stricter land use planning in flood-prone areas, stronger incentives for homeowners to adopt flood mitigation, and more support for municipalities on infrastructure.
"Natural disasters are no longer one-off events; they require collective adaptation and long-term vision," said Laurent Fafard, IBC's vice-president for Quebec, at the time.
The stakes are already visible. Storms on June 20 and 21 caused more than C$409 million in insured damage, according to CatIQ estimates confirmed by IBC. The province averages roughly 25,000 flood-related claims a year.
Quebec is also partway through redrawing its flood maps under a regulatory framework that took effect on March 1. Provincial estimates suggest around 35,000 homes could be added to flood zones, and higher estimates put the total closer to 77,000. Newly classified properties face restrictions on renovation and rebuilding, with knock-on effects for insurance availability, mortgages and property values.
IB's pre-election coverage noted that the parties held different positions on land use, municipal infrastructure and homeowner incentives. How hard a PQ government pushes the remapping, and whether it expands incentive programs such as Rénoclimat, will shape the property market brokers face at renewal.
The new government also takes ownership of the fallout from the SAAQclic scandal at the province's public auto insurer. In February, a public inquiry led by Judge Denis Gallant found that SAAQ management made a conscious effort to conceal cost overruns on its digital platform. The project's total cost has passed C$1.1 billion.
Gallant made 26 recommendations, including a central body to oversee large public IT projects. As Insurance Business reported at the time, the longer-term test is whether the province acts on them.
St-Pierre Plamondon was among the scandal's most vocal critics in opposition. When the auditor general first reported the overruns, he suggested corruption may have played a role. His government will now decide how far, and how fast, the governance overhaul goes.
The broadest uncertainty is constitutional. In his victory speech, St-Pierre Plamondon told supporters he still hoped to make Quebec a country. He has previously indicated that a referendum would wait until Donald Trump leaves office.
A minority government limits his room to act. Liberal leader Charles Milliard said his party would co-operate on many issues but would not support a referendum. The PQ, Québec Solidaire and the Conservatives have all promised electoral reform towards proportional representation.
In the near term, brokers are unlikely to see direct changes to how insurance is regulated or sold in Quebec. A minority government needs support from other parties to pass legislation, which favours incremental change over sweeping reform.
The practical issues are the ones already under way. Clients in remapped flood zones still face changed classifications at renewal, whoever governs, and development clients still need to plan for tighter rules on building in flood-prone areas.
Over the longer term, a revived sovereignty debate adds a layer of political risk that national carriers and brokers with large Quebec books will want to watch. Uncertainty over the province's future relationship with Ottawa can weigh on investment decisions, construction pipelines and capital planning, even before any referendum is called.
