US President Donald Trump says he expects his trade war with Canada to end soon, even though formal negotiations between the two countries have not resumed since they collapsed in August.
Speaking at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday, Trump repeated his claim that Canada had been taking advantage of the US on trade and that he had no choice but to impose tariffs. He said the dispute would be settled “pretty soon” and that Canada was willing to give the US “anything at this moment.”
Asked on Monday whether there had been any movement in the past week, Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested Washington was moving closer to Canada’s position. A spokesperson for Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said the two sides remain in constructive dialogue on a range of priorities, and that Canada is ready to work towards a mutually beneficial deal that respects its interests.
Trump’s comments followed an announcement on Friday that he would lift some of the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods at the end of the month, while adding tariffs to dozens of new products, including Canadian garbage and sewage. The partial rollback came at the request of Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a border state badly affected by the dispute. Collins is in a close re-election race, and the US midterm elections are less than two weeks away.
The US imposed the 50% tariffs in August after the talks broke down, and Canada responded with matching counter-tariffs from September 8. Carney has since worked to deepen trade ties with Europe and reduce Canada’s dependence on the US.
For Canadian exporters, the latest changes swap one set of risks for another. Some businesses could see tariffs on their goods removed at the end of October, while others whose products are newly targeted face fresh costs with little warning. Neither group can be sure the changes will last beyond the midterms.
That kind of policy uncertainty is exactly what trade credit insurance is designed to address. Buyers in the US facing sudden cost increases may delay or fail to pay. Canadian suppliers selling into newly tariffed sectors may also face financial strain that affects their own customers. Take-up of trade credit cover among Canadian exporters remains low, despite growing demand since the start of the dispute.
For brokers with exporting clients, Trump’s prediction is no reason to relax. The tariff picture has changed repeatedly since August, and talk of a deal has not yet produced one. Clients that dropped or postponed trade credit cover in the hope of a quick settlement may still be exposed, especially if their US buyers are in sectors affected by the latest tariffs.
Brokers should review clients’ buyer limits and credit insurers’ appetite in sectors affected by both the rollback and the new tariffs. Insurers may adjust limits quickly when tariff rules change. A deal, if it comes, would reduce the risk. Until then, the safest assumption for exporters is that trade policy will keep changing.
