Cumulative standardised mortality rates in England and Wales were at their lowest recorded first-half level in 2026, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) reported. Deaths registered to June 26, 2026 were 5.4% below the ten-year average for 2016 to 2025. The result applied to both males and females across all age groups tracked by the CMI mortality monitor.
A sharp fall in respiratory mortality drove the improvement. There were 40,318 deaths involving influenza or pneumonia in H1 2026, down from 47,917 in H1 2025 and 47,687 in H1 2024. The range for the first halves of 2023 to 2025 was 47,700 to 51,500, CMI figures show.
COVID-19 continued its decline as a cause of death. There were 777 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in H1 2026, compared with 2,329 in H1 2025 and 5,294 in H1 2024. The equivalent H1 2023 figure was 11,700.
The combined decline in COVID-19 and respiratory mortality marks a continuation of the post-pandemic normalisation in England and Wales. The CMI noted that the monitor does not offer analysis of reasons for changes in mortality rates or other causes of death.
The cumulative mortality improvement for H1 2026, measured against the same period in 2025, was +2.4%. The figure measures the reduction from H1 2025 to H1 2026 as a proportion of full-year mortality for 2025.
Steve Bale FIA C.Act, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said mortality in the first half of the year is "at record lows in 2026 for all age groups considered in the mortality monitor, helped by continuing lower flu and pneumonia deaths."
Sustained mortality improvement carries direct implications for longevity reserving and pricing assumptions. Life annuity providers and defined benefit pension schemes rely on CMI projections as a central input to actuarial models, including under Solvency II reserving requirements. If sustained through H2, the trend would reinforce longevity improvement assumptions and carry pricing consequences for longevity swaps and bulk annuity markets.
The CMI cautioned that the ten-year comparison is not a measure of likely deaths for the full year of 2026. Care is also needed when extrapolating from partial-year data. Population estimates for recent years are CMI's own and are less certain than published ONS figures for earlier periods.
Results are based on death registration dates rather than dates of occurrence. Individual weeks may not therefore be directly comparable across years due to public holiday timing and registration patterns. A death certification reform in September 2024 changed the registration window start from the date of death to receipt of a signed medical certificate.
The CMI mortality monitor is a primary reference for actuaries setting longevity assumptions across life insurance, pensions and Solvency II-regulated reserving. Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited, which is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), publishes the monitor using Standardised Mortality Rates (SMRs). These adjust provisional data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to control for changes in population size, age, and sex distribution.
