Which US property/casualty insurance lines have seen premium growth in 2019?

The US property / casualty (P&C) insurance industry is on its way to achieving a full-year 2019 combined ratio of just below 100%, according to market intelligence and analytics firm, S&P Global. In its ‘2019 US Property and Casualty Insurance Market Report’, S&P Global projected a 2019 combined ratio of 98.4%, marking a year-over-year (YOY) improvement of nearly 0.8%, driven by strength in certain key business lines and improved underwriting in others.

The P&C industry has seen its combined ratio improve by 25 basis points or more, according to S&P Global. However, total premium growth has seen YOY deterioration of 25 basis points or more. Both personal and commercial lines have seen premium growth drop, but combined ratios have improved.

Across all lines of P&C business, here’s S&P Global’s account of 2019 premium growth relative to 2018. S&P’s conclusions are drawn from results filed by US-domiciled entities with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners:

Lines to see YOY deterioration of 25 basis points or more:

• Private auto
• Commercial auto
• Marine lines
• Workers’ compensation
• Other commercial

Lines to see YOY improvement of 25 basis points or more:

• Homeowners
• Aircraft
• Commercial multi-peril
• Fidelity and surety
• General liability
• Medical professional liability
• Mortgage guarantee

Lines to see YOY positive or negative change of less than 25 basis points

• Farmowners
• Fire and allied lines

Across all lines of P&C business, here’s S&P Global’s account of 2019 premium growth relative to 2018:

Lines to see YOY deterioration of 25 basis points or more:

• Private auto
• Fidelity and surety
• General liability
• Marine lines
• Medical professional liability
• Mortgage guarantee
• Workers’ compensation

Lines to see YOY improvement of 25 basis points or more:

• Homeowners
• Farmowners
• Aircraft
• Commercial auto
• Commercial multi-peril
• Fire and allied lines
• Other commercial

Commenting on the findings, S&P Global’s Tim Zawacki said: “We expect mixed trends in direct premiums written [in commercial lines, 2019]. Balancing the impact of widespread talk about pricing momentum in a number of commercial lines with macro forecasts for a slowdown in domestic economic growth and the drag from significant rate decreases in workers' comp, we forecast direct premiums written growth of 4.7% in 2019 for commercial lines, compared to 5.3% in 2018. Our outlook contemplates a more material decline across all P&C business lines, with a projection for 2019 direct premiums written growth of 4.3% marking a decline from the 5.6% rate of expansion in 2018.”

Moving forwards into 2020, S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts a total P&C market increase to a combined ratio of 99.4%, with results just over 100% to follow from 2021 through 2023.