The US commercial insurance market continues to offer buyers favorable conditions but insurers and brokers caution that stability could prove fragile as economic and claims pressures build.
Lockton's latest Market Update points to a marketplace that remains competitive but faces growing headwinds. The September edition noted that most major lines are holding steady, even as insurers become more selective on certain risks.
For buyers, the landscape is markedly different from the hard market cycle of 2019 to 2022, when property and casualty rates surged by double digits across multiple renewals. Since then, increased competition among carriers and moderating loss trends in some areas have helped ease conditions. In the first half of 2025, US commercial P&C premiums grew at a slower pace, with average composite rate increases hovering in the low digits.
"It's as though we are in the third inning of a tight ballgame," said Vince Gaffigan, Lockton's director of US market engagement. "Every pitch, every call and every play will count -- and could change the outcome."
Property and workers' compensation remain relatively stable, with strong insurer appetite keeping rates favorable. Liability lines, however, remain under pressure from social inflation, rising injury awards and nuclear verdicts, pushing third-party rates higher for many buyers.
Meanwhile, two of the more volatile segments in recent years, D&O and cyber, could be turning a corner, according to the report. After a period of softening, Lockton sees early signs of price firming as underwriters adjust to rising claims severity and frequency. Cyber, in particular, continues to draw scrutiny as ransomware attacks and systemic risks escalate.
“[E]xecution matters,” said Greg Spore, Lockton’s U.S. professional and executive risk market leader. “Buyers with strategic foresight are best positioned to secure favorable outcomes.”
The report also highlighted emerging risks tied to the rapid growth of US data centers. Concentrated asset values, energy usage, and resilience challenges are prompting tighter underwriting standards, making proactive risk management essential.
The overall picture for buyers remains stable, but the market’s trajectory is uncertain. Economic volatility, shifting regulation, and geopolitical risk all remain variables that could alter the balance. For now, insurers are competing for business, but those dynamics can shift quickly if claims trends worsen or capacity tightens, the report said.
