For global insurance stakeholders, despite the disruptive ripple effects of the US-Iran standoff, industry data shows that insurance market conditions remain broadly favorable, with abundant capacity and competitive pricing across the majority of policy lines. Aon's Q1 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights report finds that the global commercial insurance market entered 2026 with tailwinds for buyers, offering broad capacity, flexible underwriting and competitive pricing across many major lines - but warns that the favourable environment sits alongside rising geopolitical, legal and claims-related risks that could quickly narrow options for organizations that delay action. Brokers are being urged to take advantage of the current conditions before this opportunity window closes, and to bring a renewed focus on claims capability into their conversations with clients.
“Over the next one to two renewal cycles, clients should take advantage of current conditions by pushing for broader coverage, optimizing programme structures and, where appropriate, securing longer-term or diversified capacity," said Aon's Australia head of commercial risk, Ben Rolfe (pictured). "At the same time, they should retain a clear focus on what lies ahead, with plans in place for potential shifts in insurer appetite and capability."
In the Pacific, Rolfe says conditions remain broadly favorable, continuing the trends seen in 2025 - abundant capacity, competitive pricing across the majority of policy lines, and flexibility on programme structure, particularly for well-managed risks. But geopolitical risk, supply chain fragility and catastrophe exposure are all building pressure that could tighten underwriting conditions later in 2026, particularly as premium adequacy diminishes. Captive enablement strategies, he suggests, can help organizations bank the benefits of today's market while building longer-term resilience for when it turns.
The same dynamic is playing out in London and across the UK. Aon has noted that benign natural catastrophe experience during 2025 helped support favorable reinsurance conditions at the January 1 2026 renewals, with buyer-friendly conditions expected to persist this year, though the pace of softening is slowing. UK market data shows commercial rates falling through 2025, with brokers widely expecting the soft market to plateau by late 2026.
Howden CEO David Howden has described 2026 as a moment when “everyone stands to benefit” amid falling prices despite elevated political and economic volatility — a verdict that captures the prevailing UK broker mood, but one that comes with the same caveat Rolfe is sounding from Sydney: the window is finite and the smart play is to lock in structure, not just price.
Rolfe said clients with direct or indirect exposure to the Middle East are already feeling the effects. The most impacted lines are marine, with direct exposure to Gulf shipping routes, along with political violence and terrorism, and property cover where supply chains are disrupted. Underwriters are increasingly focused on operational disruption, contingent business interruption and territorial definitions, particularly where there is indirect exposure through key trade routes or supply chains linked to the region. For brokers, the immediate priority is stress-testing for coverage gaps that are not always obvious - sanctions exclusions, political violence, denial of access and how cyber or geopolitical triggers flow through to property and business interruption cover.
Clients, he said, should think carefully about purchasing specialist cover for these perils and, at a minimum, fully understand where exposures sit within their supply chains.
The picture in the US is broadly similar on property and many specialty lines, but casualty remains the big outlier. Aon's 2026 P&C Outlook reports that general liability rates in the US rose 5.6% in Q4 2025 and are forecast to climb up to 9% in Q1 2026, with auto liability up 9.2% in Q4 and forecast to rise 7% to 15% in Q1 2026 - a severity-driven trend that is pulling capacity out of US casualty even as property and other classes soften. US broker and insurer commentary has warned that the persistent pressure of social inflation across liability lines is the market's most significant challenge heading into 2026, with larger jury verdicts and settlements pushing claims costs higher across auto, umbrella, employment practices and general liability.
In Asia, particularly in hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong, brokers are seeing a similar pattern: strong competition on well‑managed risks, deep capacity in the company and facultative markets and flexibility on programme structure for regional and multinational buyers. However, underwriters increasingly selective on risk quality and geopolitical exposure. Buyers in Singapore are still able to secure multi‑year deals and broadened terms on property, financial lines and specialty, provided they can evidence robust risk management and stable loss histories.
Which sets up Rolfe's third observation.
“As a result, conversations are shifting toward claims capability, consistency and behavior under pressure, rather than focusing solely on price and capacity," he said. "For clients with complex property, liability or cyber programmes, there is growing emphasis on how insurers have performed on recent large or contested claims, and on their willingness to respond in grey areas."
Buyers, he added, are increasingly recognizing that the real value of insurance is demonstrated at the point of claim, not simply at placement. That is leading to more structured discussions around claims advocacy, insurer track record and alignment on policy intent from the outset - with many buyers concluding that certainty of outcome now matters more than marginal differences in premium. At the global level, Aon’s Risk Capital leadership is making the same point: rising geopolitical volatility is exposing how quickly assumptions around coverage, capacity and balance sheet protection can break down, and organisations that stress test their programmes now will have far more options than those forced to react later.
For brokers in Sydney, London, New York and Singapore, the through-line is the same: 2026 could be a rare moment when cost optimisation and resilience-building can sit on the same page - but only for clients who move while the window is still open.
