New risk modeling data from CoreLogic suggests that millions of US homes are at high risk of either hurricane or storm surge damage – and the total cost to repair or replace them would number in the tens of trillions of dollars.
In CoreLogic’s “2022 Hurricane Report,” the analytics firm said that nearly 7.8 million homes with more than $2.3 trillion in combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) are at risk of hurricane-related damages. Meanwhile, almost 33 million homes with roughly $10.5 trillion in combined RCV are at risk of hurricane-force wind damages.
CoreLogic’s warnings do not come unfounded, as the firm cited recent data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which had forecasted an above-normal 2022 hurricane season, with as many as 21 named storms and up to 10 hurricanes – between three and six of these could be major, the agency warned.
The report also investigated the top 15 US cities with the greatest exposures to hurricane and storm surge damage. The New York City metro area has the greatest risk among all of America’s cities, with nearly 900,000 single-family residences (SFR) and multifamily residences (MFR) with nearly $433 billion in RCV at risk of storm surge damage, and more than four million SFR and MFR with over $2.2 trillion in RCV at risk of wind damage.
The NYC metro area is followed by the Miami metro area, with nearly 770,000 SFR and MFR homes with nearly $193 billion in RCV at risk of storm surge damage and more than two million SFR and MFR homes with more than $521 billion in RCV at risk of wind damage.
In terms of US states, CoreLogic found that Florida, Louisiana and New York have the greatest number of SFR and MFR homes at risk of storm damage, with over three million; nearly 911,000; and more than 600,000 homes at risk, respectively. Meanwhile, Texas is the top state for hurricane wind risk with over 8.8 million homes at risk.
“This hurricane season could be particularly severe for the US Gulf Coast due to warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, an ongoing La Niña, and a stronger than average loop current in the Gulf of Mexico,” said CoreLogic chief meteorologist Dr. Daniel Betten. “Although La Nina events typically occur once every three years, this fall will likely be the fifth La Nina event over the last seven years.”