Global healthcare systems are approaching a structural inflection point, with spending on track to almost double by 2040 unless productivity improves, according to new analysis from consultancy Oliver Wyman, a business of Marsh.
In its report, Unlocking the Great Health Productivity Reset, Oliver Wyman warned that without "meaningful intervention," pressures including aging populations, labor shortages and system inefficiencies could push annual healthcare spending from $11.8 trillion at present to $23.1 trillion by 2040. The study argued that AI, robotics and other emerging technologies offer one of the few credible levers to contain that growth.
In 2025, global healthcare spending reached $11.8 trillion, with North America accounting for $5.5 trillion, Europe for $2.6 trillion, $1.2 trillion across Asia’s leading economies, and $2.5 trillion from other developing markets.
Of the projected $11.3 trillion increase through 2040, Oliver Wyman estimated that roughly $2.7 trillion is “structurally locked in” due to population growth. The larger share – around $8.6 trillion – is attributed to rising system inefficiencies as healthcare struggles to meet growing demand amid labor shortages, fragmented operating models, and a rising chronic disease burden.
Based on current trajectories, this cost growth would outpace economic expansion in most major regions and materially increase healthcare's share of GDP, putting additional pressure on public finances, employer plans and private health insurers, according to the report.
Despite the rapid cost increase, productivity in healthcare has remained broadly flat. The report argued that AI, automation and robotics have the potential to offset up to 60% of the projected cost increases if adoption is coordinated, scaled and supported by "strong institutional and policy frameworks."
The study also positioned the convergence of AI, robotics and quantum technology as a realistic opportunity to reset healthcare productivity across clinical, administrative and operational domains, including provider systems, pharma, MedTech and payers.
That push toward technology-enabled care intersects with broader risk concerns. Allianz’s 2026 Risk Barometer, for example, showed cyber incidents remain the top global business threat for the fifth consecutive year, with artificial intelligence ranked second overall – its highest-ever position in the survey. The report warned that AI is “supercharging threats, increasing the attack surface and adding to existing vulnerabilities,” underscoring the need for robust cyber and technology error coverage as healthcare digitizes.
Using proprietary modeling and its health technology use case database, Oliver Wyman assessed three adoption pathways through 2040, varying the speed of technology uptake, depth of workflow integration, and discipline of reinvestment.
Under the most conservative “incremental” adoption scenario, the report identified potential net savings of $1.1 trillion per year by 2040, equivalent to around a 4% reduction in projected costs. Meanwhile, under a more aggressive “breakthrough” adoption scenario, annual savings could reach $5.1 trillion, or a 22% reduction in forecast spending.
Oliver Eitelwein, partner and global leader for Oliver Wyman's life sciences performance transformation practice, framed the shift as both a cost and growth story.
“This is both an end-to-end cost-reset opportunity and a structural growth engine, especially for medical device and healthcare technology sectors. Beyond cost containment, these investments would catalyze new high-value innovation markets across AI platforms, robotics, medical devices, and data infrastructure,” he said.
From an insurance perspective, that growth could translate into expanded demand for specialist technology, cyber, product liability, and clinical trial cover, alongside continued pressure on health and life carriers to reflect technology-enabled care pathways in pricing and product design.
As healthcare systems embark on what Oliver Wyman calls a “great health productivity reset,” insurers, reinsurers, and brokers are being drawn more deeply into questions of technology adoption, governance, and resilience – not just as payers of claims, but as partners in financing and de-risking the transformation
