Exporters are adjusting operations and re-evaluating risk strategies in response to growing trade policy unpredictability, according to the 2025 Allianz Trade Global Survey.
The survey findings, based on responses from 4,500 companies across nine major economies, were released following the insurer’s Global Insolvency Report, which projects continued increases in global business failures into 2026.
Conducted around the US tariff changes announced on April 2 – referred to by some market participants as “Liberation Day” – the survey showed that export optimism has significantly eroded.
Positive sentiment dropped from 80% prior to the tariff announcement to 40% afterward. Forty-five percent of respondents now expect export turnover to decline, largely due to tariff costs and currency swings.
CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui (pictured) said Allianz Trade’s data reflects what businesses have been navigating over recent years – persistent fragmentation in global trade and the need to reconfigure strategies.
“Companies are not standing still. Having navigated successive shocks since 2020, they are once again adapting, diversifying partners, reconfiguring logistics, and embedding risk-sharing across the value chain. In today’s trade environment, success depends increasingly on adaptability,” she said.
The survey highlighted how exporters in China and Singapore are facing heightened pressure. Eighty-two percent of Chinese respondents and 55% from Singapore anticipate reduced international sales.
In anticipation, nearly all companies in both countries are shifting toward new markets to reduce exposure to US policy moves.
Many US businesses have also responded by frontloading shipments, with 86% reporting accelerated imports earlier in the year to beat tariff deadlines. This behaviour is likely to continue through the summer as temporary tariff pauses expire.
Rather than absorbing cost increases, over half of US firms reported plans to raise export prices.
Additionally, many companies are modifying shipping routes and passing logistical responsibilities to suppliers. Sixty-two percent of US firms said they are now using alternative shipping paths, taking advantage of recent reductions in freight and fuel prices.
Risk-sharing clauses related to foreign exchange fluctuations are being adopted more widely, with 59% of businesses now integrating these terms into supplier and client contracts.
Cross-border trade dynamics are also shifting. US companies are scaling back plans to export to China, while Chinese firms have significantly reduced their focus on North America.
Firms are increasingly looking to Latin America and Western Europe for production and distribution, aligning with what some analysts refer to as “friendshoring.”
Françoise Huang, senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Allianz Trade, said although tariffs have eased somewhat, they remain well above pre-2020 levels.
“Even though the new trade deal brings the US average import tariff rate on China to 39%, down from an eye-watering 103%, this remains much higher than the 13% rate applied before the second Trump administration,” Huang said.
Longer payment terms and rising non-payment concerns are another byproduct of recent trade developments.
A quarter of exporters expect to see payment cycles extended by more than a week, and 48% report elevated non-payment risk, particularly in markets such as the US, the UK, and Italy.
Only 11% of respondents are receiving payment within 30 days, while around 70% fall into the 30-to-70-day window. Larger firms are experiencing the longest delays, with some effectively extending informal credit to their trading partners.
Ana Boata, head of economic research at Allianz Trade, said these payment challenges suggest a shift in the liquidity burden.
“As exporters face longer payment cycles and rising insolvency risks, they’re under pressure to pass on costs, source from new markets, or even reconsider their entire international footprint,” Boata said.
In its Global Insolvency Report, Allianz Trade projects a 6% global rise in business insolvencies in 2025, followed by an additional 3% in 2026.
This would mark five straight years of increases, driven by sustained pressure from interest rates, soft demand, and the gradual withdrawal of pandemic-era support mechanisms.
Somersan Coqui noted that sectors with heavy capital needs – such as renewable energy, tech, and logistics – are particularly vulnerable due to constrained financing conditions.
Asia-Pacific insolvency figures reflect ongoing stress in several markets. In 2024, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand experienced some of the sharpest increases in failures.
While some moderation is expected in 2025, markets like Taiwan and Hong Kong are forecast to see continued pressure.
China, in particular, is expected to face a 7% increase in 2025 and a 10% rise in 2026, due in part to persistent issues in construction and export-dependent sectors.
