Alberta drivers will start receiving auto insurance renewal notices priced under the province's Care-First system on November 1.
These are for policies taking effect on or after Jan. 1, 2027, when the new model replaces the current court-based system.
According to the Automobile Insurance Rate Board (AIRB), the notices should show an average premium reduction of about $297 per private passenger vehicle, or 13.7%. That is based on the rates insurers have filed for the new system.
Young drivers are expected to see the biggest cuts. The AIRB's young male rating profile showed a reduction of $3,094, or 30%. Premiums for its young female profile fall by 27.6%, a cut of nearly $2,500, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC).
"In its analysis, the AIRB notes that under the current system, young drivers and families with young drivers have paid higher premiums due to the higher risk of lawsuits among those drivers," said Aaron Sutherland, IBC's vice president for Pacific and Western Canada.
Middle-aged drivers are projected to save about $525, or roughly 14%, and seniors about 20%, IB reported when the AIRB figures were released in September.
The figures are averages by vehicle class and rating profile. Individual renewals will depend on driving record, location, vehicle and coverage choices.
Heather Mack, the AIRB's manager of education and engagement, has said the projections are not a guarantee of savings.
Not every class benefits. The filings the AIRB reviewed show motorcycle premiums rising because of the system's expanded injury benefits. The regulator's earlier actuarial costing attributed this to the higher likelihood of serious injury in motorcycle collisions.
The AIRB has also set rules for how insurers communicate the changes. It issued a bulletin in May on informing policyholders about premium changes under Care-First and the repeal of the Grid rating system, and another in September on prorated cancellations. In mid-September, it stopped accepting new rate filings that would increase consumer premiums until new guidelines are issued later this year.
Care-First moves Alberta from a fault-based system, where injured people sue at-fault drivers, to one where most injury claims go through the injured person's own insurer. The AIRB said medical and rehabilitation coverage will become unlimited for eligible treatment, with improved income replacement and permanent impairment benefits.
The overhaul is still disputed. The Alberta Civil Trial Lawyers Association has questioned the costing methodology behind the projected savings, including the reliance on Manitoba's public no-fault insurance as a benchmark. Critics from the plaintiffs' bar have also argued that limiting lawsuits reduces injured people's access to full compensation.
The renewal cycle is the first time most Alberta drivers will see Care-First in their own premiums, and brokers will handle much of the reaction. Client conversations will vary sharply. Families with young drivers may see cuts of several thousand dollars, while motorcyclists face increases. Drivers expecting the advertised $300 may find their renewal differs because of individual rating factors and the loss of the Grid.
The changes to benefits also need explaining. Clients moving away from the right to sue will want to know what their own policy now covers if they are injured, and how claims will work under the new rules.
With notices going out across November and December, brokers have about two months to handle those questions before the system takes effect.
