Global offshore energy insurance premiums grew just 0.1% in 2025 to USD 4.8 billion, according to IUMI's Offshore Energy Committee, extending what the association's own figures describe as a soft market cycle now in its sixth or seventh consecutive year, but brokers treating the whole segment as uniformly soft are missing a pocket that has already started to harden.

Michele Cibrario, chair of IUMI's Offshore Energy Committee, told the association's Rotterdam conference that capacity continues to exceed demand across the market, with insurers focused on growth despite pressure on profitability. The London market, comprising Lloyd's and the International Underwriting Association, remains dominant at roughly 60% of global offshore energy premium, a share that held broadly stable through 2025.

That soft backdrop does not extend evenly across the market. Willis's own energy market review has separately flagged subsea construction as capacity-constrained enough to describe it as a "micro-hard market", even as broader upstream rates kept falling, with Gallagher Specialty putting 2025 blended upstream rate reductions at around 11%, with further double-digit cuts expected through 2026.

Cibrario said that gap is about to matter more. Many offshore sites have yet to return to full operation following disruption linked to geopolitical events, and rising 2026 capital expenditure, driven largely by energy security concerns, means insurers are likely to see renewed exposure to construction, testing and commissioning risk as investment and redevelopment activity picks up.

Loss ratios remain low for now, but IUMI's data shows 2026 loss activity trending higher than the same point last year, with attritional claims steadily eroding underwriting profitability even without a major catastrophic loss. Renewables, which already make up 30% of London market offshore energy premium, add further complexity: roughly two-thirds of the USD 3.3 trillion invested globally in energy during 2025 went toward renewable projects.

Cibrario summarised the underlying challenge directly: "the amount and complexity of risk is growing faster than the market's ability." For brokers, the practical implication is to stop treating offshore energy renewals as one uniform soft market: operational risk still favours buyers after six-plus years of softening, but construction, testing and commissioning cover tied to newly restarting projects should be approached expecting tighter capacity and firmer terms.