The UK's two largest motor insurers have pushed back against predictions that self-driving vehicles will soon dominate Britain's roads or devastate traditional motor insurance, insisting car cover will remain a mainstay of their businesses for decades.
The Department for Transport’s call for evidence, launched in December 2025, seeks views on insurance requirements, operator licensing and safety standards under the Automated Vehicles Act 2024.
According to a report from GB News, despite some analysts warning that robotaxis and higher levels of automation could fundamentally reshape motor insurance, Admiral and Aviva signalled they do not expect rapid or destabilising change.
Admiral chief executive Milena Mondini de Focatiis told the Financial Times the FTSE 100 group expects self-driving cars to account for roughly 4% of the UK car market by 2035.
“We expect the motor insurance market to keep growing for the next 20 years or so, at least,” she said.
Analysts at Jefferies noted that Admiral’s projection for autonomous vehicle market share appeared “lower than some assumed”, describing it as one of the first explicit forecasts from a major insurer. The figure contrasts with more aggressive scenarios from some financial institutions that have begun factoring autonomous disruption into their valuations of motor carriers.
Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc similarly acknowledged that technology is advancing but suggested a tipping point remains a long way off. While “change is coming”, she said, there is unlikely to be widespread uptake of fully autonomous vehicles before 2040.
According to the report, both groups reported operating profit growth of more than 10% in their most recent full-year results, broadly meeting market expectations and reinforcing their message that motor remains a resilient and profitable line in its current form.
Under the existing legal framework, insurers generally remain the first point of compensation for victims of road traffic incidents, even where an automated driving system is engaged, with scope to recover from manufacturers or software providers if a defect is at fault. The current consultation is focused on how that framework should operate in practice, including data, safety and insurance rules.
In practice, that means insurers are unlikely to be disintermediated in the near term. Instead, risk is expected to shift gradually, with more emphasis over time on product liability, systems performance and fleet or operator cover alongside traditional personal motor policies.
Admiral’s 4% estimate sits well below some of the headline global projections for autonomous mobility. Certain investment banks and technology proponents envisage far higher penetration of robotaxis and self-driving fleets by the mid-2030s, with corresponding disruption to private car ownership and conventional motor insurance, the report said.
However, the UK is starting from a cautious baseline. Ministers have stressed that self-driving systems must be at least as safe as a “careful and competent human driver”, and that public confidence will be crucial to any large-scale rollout. The vehicle fleet itself also turns over slowly, with many cars remaining on the road for more than a decade.
Against that context, the timelines suggested by Aviva and Admiral are arguably more closely aligned with regulatory and practical realities than some of the most optimistic global forecasts. For now, the expectation is that human-driven vehicles, or cars with only partial automation, will dominate traffic well into the 2030s and beyond.
In the medium term, the comments from Aviva and Admiral point to evolution rather than revolution for UK motor insurance.
Insurers are likely to continue writing large volumes of traditional personal motor business while gradually adapting products, wordings and pricing models to reflect higher levels of driver assistance and, eventually, authorised self-driving systems. Data from increasingly connected vehicles will become more important in underwriting, rating and claims handling.
Over the longer term, carriers that can build partnerships with vehicle makers and automated vehicle operators, secure access to high-quality data and navigate shifting liability regimes are likely to be best placed.
