Insurance and claims costs at the 10 largest US trucking companies rose more than five times faster than revenue between 2021 and 2025, and by 2025, three of those companies were posting net losses, according to a Demotech analysis of SEC EDGAR filings.
The numbers tell a story of a sector under structural financial stress. Insurance and claims spending across the 10 largest US trucking companies rose from $992 million in 2021 to $1.53 billion in 2025, a 54.4% increase. Over the same period, aggregate revenue grew only 9.95% and total operating expenses rose 15.16%.
The Demotech analysis is based on SEC EDGAR 10-K filings. It covers Old Dominion Freight Line, JB Hunt Transport Services, XPO Logistics, Saia, and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings. Also covered are RXO, Schneider National, ArcBest, Werner Enterprises, and Heartland Express.
Combined net profit for the group fell from $4.2 billion in 2021 to $2.2 billion in 2025, a drop of approximately 46.9%. In 2021, none of the 10 companies posted a net loss. By 2025, three did. Demotech attributed the deterioration to cost pressure, not weaker demand.
Seven of the 10 companies recorded insurance cost increases faster than inflation over the five years. One company’s insurance expenses more than doubled between 2021 and 2025. The litigation environment provides the clearest explanation.
The Amwins 2025 Transportation State of the Market Report found commercial auto premiums rose 9.4% in 2025. Social inflation, nuclear verdicts, and reinsurance costs were cited as the primary drivers.
The median nuclear verdict in trucking cases reached $51 million in 2024, up from $44 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2020, according to Marathon Strategies. Nuclear verdicts across all industries rose 52% in 2024 to 135 cases, with total award values jumping 116% to $31.3 billion.
Tariffs are adding to the pressure: a 25% tariff on a new Class 8 truck could raise its price by up to $35,000, according to the American Trucking Associations.
That pressure is expected to persist into 2026 and beyond. Mark Gallagher, who leads Risk Placement Services’ national transportation practice, said spot market volatility, tariff risk, and rising insurance and repair costs will continue to define the near-term outlook.
He added that late-reported claims can introduce issues exacerbated by social inflation, litigation funding, and nuclear verdicts.
“If there’s a history and a pattern of poor or delayed response in turning in claims, that’s going to impact clients,” Gallagher said.
The insurer response to sustained claims severity has structurally reduced the coverage available to trucking carriers. Brian Pierce, chief underwriting officer at Victor US, said nuclear verdicts have doubled since 2020.
A 2022 study found $20.7 billion in commercial auto losses between 2010 and 2019, tied to loss factors beyond normal inflation. Reinsurers have responded by cutting umbrella limits.
Where businesses once purchased $25 million umbrella policies, many can now only secure $10 million, Pierce said. That capacity reduction helps explain why insurance costs for large carriers have grown well beyond the rate of revenue.
The legislative response is beginning to show measurable results at the state level. Florida’s 2023 tort reforms, which eliminated one-way attorney fees and adjusted comparative negligence rules, dropped the state from No. 2 to No. 10 nationally for nuclear verdicts.
At the federal level, the Forum Accountability and Integrity in Roadway (FAIR) Trucking Act was introduced in September 2025 to route large interstate trucking cases into federal courts, where median awards run lower than in state courts.
Aggregate revenues and expenses both peaked in 2022 before stabilizing. Insurance costs grew at more than three times the rate of total expenses over the full five-year period.
Demotech said managing these costs will be increasingly important for carriers seeking to protect margins in a slower-growth environment.
