The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has opened with its most favorable forecast in more than a decade. This, however, has not reassured the insurance market.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts the probability of below-normal activity at 55%, with just a 10% chance of an above-normal season. Its outlook calls for eight to 14 named storms, three to seven hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.
It is the first below-normal NOAA forecast since 2015, yet that year still produced 12 named storms. Primary carriers are responding by holding firm on wind and named-storm deductibles in high-hazard coastal zones. There is little appetite to relax underwriting discipline on the strength of a seasonal projection alone.
Janine Powell, claims director at the Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA), said the forecast should not be read as a green light.
“It only takes one major hurricane to make landfall to have devastating effects,” Powell said. “Think back to 1992’s Hurricane Andrew. This enormous storm occurred in a season predicted to be below normal and was the most damaging storm to hit the US in decades.”
Chris Jones, chief executive of the International Underwriting Association (IUA), said the market’s focus should be on where storms occur, their severity, and the level of exposure in their path.
“It is important for the market to look beyond headline storm counts and consider the wider drivers of loss, including rising concentrations of people, property, and insured assets in coastal areas,” Jones said.
The financial stakes reinforce this message. Swiss Re’s internal models put a 10% probability on a peak-loss year reaching $320 billion. An on-trend 2026 scenario would imply insured losses of $148 billion, according to Swiss Re US property and casualty reinsurance chief Monica Ningen.
Guy Carpenter added that losses are driven by hurricane landfalls and the characteristics of affected structures, not basin activity alone.
Danny Stock, head of property at Allianz Commercial, said climate change is adding intensity to storms regardless of how many form.
“Fewer storms does not necessarily mean lower risk,” Stock said. “Even after a relatively benign 2025 season overall, Hurricane Melissa showed how a single powerful storm can still cause major damage.”
Powell pointed to Melissa as evidence of how fast conditions can turn. The storm intensified to a category 5 in just 39 hours in 2025, causing economic losses estimated at $6 billion to $7 billion.
Meteorologist Tomasz Schafernaker, speaking at an LMA briefing last week, said the ongoing El Niño is already pushing tropical cyclone risk higher along the Pacific coast of North and Central America in 2026.
Jones said IUA member companies are applying the latest data analytics and modeling techniques to assess their exposure in hurricane-prone regions. Powell added that the Lloyd’s market has invested in technology to accelerate claims responses after major events.
Stock closed with the market’s core message: “Preparedness matters more than storm counts.”
