Flood-prone areas of the US are losing residents at an accelerating pace. High-flood-risk counties posted a net outflow of 63,357 people in 2025, nearly double the 34,099 recorded a year earlier.
The findings come from a Redfin analysis of US Census Bureau domestic migration data and First Street climate-risk scores.
Low-flood-risk counties moved in the opposite direction. They gained 69,857 more residents than they lost in 2025, the largest net inflow since 2018. The divergence points to a structural shift in where Americans choose to live.
Redfin defined high-risk counties as those in the top 10% by share of homes facing significant flood risk. That threshold covers counties where between 23.7% and 99.1% of homes are exposed.
Miami and Houston topped the list of flood-prone markets that lost the most residents in 2025.
The Redfin report identifies rising insurance costs as one of the primary drivers pushing households out. Homeowners in high-risk counties are facing higher premiums, difficulty renewing flood coverage, and soaring HOA fees in disaster-prone communities.
The premium environment gives that pressure a specific shape. Insurify’s 2026 Insuring the American Homeowner Report projects the average US home insurance premium will reach $3,057 by December 2026.
Premiums rose 12% nationwide in 2025, with rates increasing in 45 states. Florida’s average premium stands at $8,292, nearly three times the national average.
Kyle Kleinman, a Redfin agent in Miami, said hurricane risk has become a deciding factor for out-of-town buyers.
“I’ve worked with a lot of house hunters who were searching in Miami from out of town, then they completely backed out,” Kleinman said.
For property and flood insurers, the population movement has direct underwriting consequences. As households self-select out of high-risk zones, the remaining insured pool trends toward higher-risk properties and owners less able to relocate.
Carriers that have pulled back from vulnerable coastal markets face a separate pressure in the receiving areas where relocated residents are concentrating.
The numbers behind that risk concentration are significant. From 2000 to 2024, insured US flood losses totaled $319 billion while uninsured losses topped $1.58 trillion, according to a Moody’s analysis.
Only 4% of US homeowners carry flood insurance. Uninsured flood losses could rise a further 25% by 2050 if take-up rates remain unchanged.
The retreat of private capital from high-risk markets has already reshaped the coverage picture. From 2018 to 2023, state insurers of last resort in California, Florida, and Louisiana roughly doubled their policy counts as private carriers pulled back.
Florida’s Citizens Property Insurance Corporation grew to approximately 1.4 million policyholders.
As climate migration accelerates, carriers absorbing growth in receiving markets face a different version of the same accumulation problem.
Redfin noted that some flood-prone counties continue to attract residents, typically those that are relatively affordable. The analysis covers domestic migration only and excludes international immigration.
