Photo from Accuweather
Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strengthen rapidly before striking the US Gulf Coast later this week, potentially delivering the Atlantic basin its first hurricane of 2026 after one of the quietest starts to a season on record.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency across 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions, activating the state’s hurricane emergency response plan.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a hurricane watch Wednesday for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass in the Florida Panhandle, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.
As of Wednesday morning, Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 45mph and was around 540 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm was moving east-northeast at 8mph and is expected to turn toward the north as it crosses the Gulf.
Landfall is currently forecast for late Friday or early Saturday, although its track and intensity remain subject to change.
The NHC expects Isaias to reach hurricane strength on Thursday, with conditions over the Gulf supporting rapid intensification.
For insurers, that brings wind, storm surge, inland flood and business interruption exposures back into focus across a stretch of coastline with significant residential, commercial, energy and marine values.
The Atlantic basin had produced nine named storms through early October, including Isaias, but none had reached hurricane strength. NHC data showed accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of the strength and duration of tropical cyclones, at just 10.9 through October 7 — 89% below the 1991-2020 normal for this stage of the season.
If Isaias becomes a hurricane on Thursday, it would come close to the all-time record for the latest first hurricane of an Atlantic season. That record was set in 1905, when the first hurricane did not form until October 8.
The absence of hurricanes has been striking even against expectations for a subdued year.
NOAA in August put the probability of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season at 75%, forecasting seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and up to two major hurricanes. An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
A strengthening El Niño has played a central role. El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and intensify even when ocean temperatures are favorable. NOAA cited that effect when maintaining its below-normal forecast in August.
But the relatively low hurricane count has not meant an absence of US impacts. Tropical storms Arthur and Bertha both developed in the Gulf earlier in the season. Arthur brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana and produced tornadoes along the Gulf Coast, while Bertha later made landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. NOAA used Arthur in particular to highlight that significant inland flooding can occur even when a system never reaches hurricane strength.
Isaias is expected to bring three to six inches of rain to portions of the Gulf Coast beginning Friday, with localized totals potentially reaching 10 inches. Rainfall could extend well inland, with parts of Tennessee and the Carolinas potentially receiving one to three inches.
The NHC has warned of dangerous winds, storm surge and flash flooding along the northern Gulf Coast.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, leaving almost two months for further development even after an exceptionally suppressed peak season.
