Ivans has reported a further softening in US commercial premium renewal rates in the first quarter of 2026, although most major lines remain up on a year-over-year basis.
The only exception continues to be workers’ compensation, where renewal rates are still in negative territory.
According to the latest Ivans Index, which tracks premium renewal rate change across key commercial classes, all major lines posted lower average renewal increases in Q1 2026 compared with Q4 2025. However, relative to the same period a year earlier, renewal rates for every major line except workers’ compensation were higher, suggesting the market is easing rather than entering a broadly soft phase.
Commercial auto renewal rates moderated in the first quarter, with the average premium renewal rate at 5.28%, down from 6.97% in Q4 2025.
January posted the highest rate change of the quarter at 5.62%, before easing to 5.05% in March, the lowest point of the period.
Businessowners policy (BOP) business followed a similar trajectory.
The average premium renewal rate change for BOP in Q1 2026 was 6.74%, down from 7.52% in the previous quarter. Within the quarter, January recorded the highest average rate change at 6.89%, while March recorded the lowest at 6.51%.
General liability premium renewal rate change also declined quarter over quarter. The average rate change in Q1 2026 was 6.85%, down from 7.23% in Q4 2025.
February posted the highest monthly average for the quarter at 7.01%, while March came in lowest at 6.64%.
Commercial property saw one of the more pronounced slowdowns. The average premium renewal rate in Q1 2026 was 6.83%, compared with 8.01% in Q4 2025. January registered the quarter high at 7.22%, before rates moved down to 6.23% in March.
This moderation follows several years of elevated property pricing driven by record catastrophe losses and inflationary pressures through 2022–2024, when global insured catastrophe losses repeatedly exceeded long-term averages and prompted capacity tightening and stricter terms and conditions across property catastrophe programs.
Umbrella business remained the highest-rated line among those tracked, but it also showed a modest easing.
The average premium renewal rate change in Q1 2026 was 9.36%, slightly below the 9.49% recorded in Q4 2025. January marked the quarter high at 10.47%, with rates slipping to 8.76% by March.
Workers’ compensation continued to diverge from the broader trend, with average renewal rates remaining in negative territory. The line posted an average premium renewal rate change of -1.73% in Q1 2026, compared with -1.61% in Q4 2025.
January saw the lowest monthly rate in the quarter at -2.17%, while February recorded the highest at -1.43%. For carriers, continued deflation in workers’ compensation reflects a prolonged period of favorable loss trends, strong competition, and solid reserve positions, but it also keeps pressure on profitability in a line often used as a portfolio stabilizer.
The Q1 2026 Ivans data pointed to a market that is moving off the peak of the hard-pricing cycle rather than turning broadly soft. Other industry indicators have shown similar dynamics, with major broker pricing surveys through 2024 and 2025 reporting moderating but still positive rate changes in many commercial lines, particularly in property and excess casualty, as new and alternative capacity entered the market and some carriers sought growth after several years of remediation.
The current pattern - lower quarter-on-quarter increases but higher year-over-year levels - suggests buyers are seeing some relief in the pace of change but are still paying materially more than a few years ago, especially in property, auto, and umbrella. That environment provides mixed negotiation leverage: insurers remain disciplined on attachment points, limits, and terms, but competition is reemerging on well-performing accounts, and differentiation by risk quality continues to be critical at renewal.
On the carrier side, the data will be weighed against rising claims cost trends. Social inflation, higher jury awards, and litigation funding continue to pressure US casualty portfolios, particularly in auto and umbrella, while property underwriters remain exposed to secondary perils such as severe convective storms and wildfire, which have driven elevated US catastrophe losses in recent seasons. Slower rate increases are likely to sharpen the focus on technical pricing, expense management, and risk selection.
“Q1 sets an important baseline for 2026, with commercial rates continuing to soften as the market adjusts to a more moderate pace of change,” said Michael Streit, president, Ivans. “Understanding market direction is what drives smarter decisions, and the Ivans Index gives the industry a shared reference point to track where it heads next.”
