The program insurance market is growing fast, but it’s entering a more fragile phase. Rates are starting to fall, litigation pressure is rising, and risks are getting harder to predict. While capital and innovation are still pouring in, there’s growing uncertainty over whether today’s expansion is built to last.
At the 2025 TMPAA Mid-Year Meeting in Dallas, IBA spoke with senior executives from across the sector to get a real-time pulse on the shifting market - and how industry players are preparing for what comes next.
“From a distribution standpoint, it’s as healthy as ever,” said Chris Pesce, division president of One80 Programs at One80 Intermediaries. “We have record attendance at this year’s conference - more program administrators, more carriers. This segment continues to outpace non-program commercial insurance in growth.”
But growth is only one part of the story. Beneath the surface, many industry leaders are bracing for what could become a pronounced market shift.
“There’s no question - we’re at a tipping point,” said Pesce. “Rates are starting to go negative, especially in property, and Lloyd’s still has capacity it won’t even deploy this year.”
But the shift isn’t happening evenly across the board. While property is softening, liability remains constrained - dragged down by a litigation environment that shows no sign of cooling. “Litigation is out of control,” Pesce said. “Settlements are getting larger, and no-one wants to be the next nuclear verdict.”
Patrick Charles, head of P&C North America at SiriusPoint, flagged the auto market as a persistent pain point. “The MGA sector isn’t immune,” he said. “We’re all dealing with loss trends and social inflation. California wildfire losses have also thrown another wrench into an already complex space.”
Even as loss ratios rise in some pockets, the industry’s appetite for innovation hasn’t dimmed. Many executives pointed to the flexibility of program structures and the rise of hybrid fronting models as key reasons for the sector’s resilience.
“The program market continues to be where innovation happens,” said Jennifer Burnham, division VP at Great American Alternative Markets. “We’ve built this segment to be agile, pulling in reinsurance when needed, adapting quickly when the standard market can’t respond.”
That innovation now hinges increasingly on data. Julie Gibbs, regional head of portfolio solutions at Allianz Commercial, said the future of delegated authority will be defined by how well MGAs and carriers manage their data, not just for underwriting, but for catastrophe exposure and real-time risk assessment.
“We’re already seeing strong collaboration in data sharing and management, but it’s going to have to evolve even faster,” she said. “Whether it’s bordereaux handling or CAT modeling, data strategy is now a core competency.”
Even with healthy attendance and strong pipeline activity, many at the conference voiced concern about whether the industry has the human capital to keep up.
“There’s a looming gap with boomers retiring,” said Burnham. “And while we’re seeing strong internship programs and college outreach from groups like Target Markets, we still need to do more to bring new talent in.”
At the same time, experienced talent is shifting, often from carriers into MGA startups. “You’ve got major movement happening,” Burnham added. “Pair that with investment capital backing new ventures, and it’s a powerful combination - but only if that talent has the infrastructure and support to execute.”
Charles offers a note of caution: “There might be too many new MGAs forming. That could be a warning sign. To thrive, they need more than a good idea. They need an ecosystem.”
One thing everyone seems to agree on is that the geography of risk is changing. What once felt like fringe exposures - wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, hurricanes drifting north, or the looming threat of cyber pandemic - are now central to underwriting conversations.
“I used to think of catastrophe risk as just Texas and Florida,” Burnham said. “Now it’s North Carolina. Now it’s Oregon. We’re underwriting a very different map.”
That evolution, she argues, demands a broader view - not just of where risks are emerging, but how the industry is prepared to respond. “We can’t just build programs for the past - we have to anticipate what’s next.”
The takeaway: Opportunity, if you’re ready
Despite early signs of market softening and increasing claims volatility, there’s still palpable excitement in the program space. Carriers are engaged. Capital is flowing. Innovation is alive. But survival in this next phase won’t be about reacting - it’ll be about readiness.
“This is a market that rewards specialization, agility, and long-term vision,” Gibbs said. “The ones who build for scale, who invest in data, and who keep their underwriting sharp - they’ll be the ones who lead.”
