US commercial property buyers have now seen back-to-back quarters of double-digit rate cuts, but the risk beneath those policies has not become cheaper to carry, according to Monica Ningen, CEO of US property and casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re.
A quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and abundant capacity have pushed property pricing down fast. Ningen told Insurance Business that capital can enter the market quickly and tip the balance between supply and demand, but the loss potential being transferred does not shift at the same speed speed.
“Given the lack of US hurricanes this year, some people forget that the risk hasn’t changed,” Ningen told Insurance Business. “The technical price of risk hasn’t changed for the better necessarily.”
The National Hurricane Center’s season summary, updated October 28, 2026, counts 10 named Atlantic storms. The season runs through November 30.
Only one storm, Isaias, became a hurricane. It peaked at major hurricane strength, then weakened before making landfall near Destin, Florida, on October 9 as a Category 2 storm – the first US hurricane landfall since Milton in October 2024. Moody’s RMS Event Response puts US private market insured losses from Isaias at $2.5 billion to $4.5 billion.
Meanwhile, Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index recorded a 10% decline in US commercial property rates in the third quarter of 2026, following a 13% drop in the second quarter. Catastrophe-driven programs saw average year-over-year reductions of 13%, and Marsh reported improved terms on its own renewals, including catastrophe deductible caps and higher limits.
The current market cycle has given brokers room to revisit program structure alongside price, as Marsh’s data showing US property and casualty rates moving in opposite directions makes clear. A client carrying a large catastrophe deductible may value a lower retention more than an extra premium saving, while another may need more limit after updating property values.
Ningen described the broader property and casualty market as a collection of microcycles, with conditions varying by geography and loss experience. Adequate capital is fueling competition, but Swiss Re’s willingness to expand remains conditional.
“We have the capital, we have the capacity, we do and will write more business when the economics are attractive, but those decisions are really made client by client and treaty by treaty,” she said.
Ningen drew a distinction between the price coverage commands in a competitive market and the technical assessment of the risk being transferred. Capital can move quickly, she said, changing the balance between supply and demand.
“The technical price of risk doesn’t move at that same pace, and the technical price of risk hasn’t changed for the better necessarily,” said Ningen.
Swiss Re estimates that global insured natural catastrophe losses are growing 5%–7% a year in real terms, driven by exposure growth, rising asset values and shifting hazard patterns. Its modeling puts insured losses in a 2026 peak-loss scenario at around $320 billion.
Read more: 2026's calm cat year is luck, not a trend - Swiss Re.
Global insured natural catastrophe losses sat at $42 billion in the first half of 2026, the lowest first-half total since 2020, according to Swiss Re Institute. Severe convective storms (such as hail, tornadoes and straight-line winds) still drove about $28 billion of that, even though the biggest outbreaks largely missed Texas, the Southern Plains and the Southeast, where insured values are most concentrated.
Growing asset values and development in exposed areas keep adding to potential losses. A year with fewer damaging hurricanes does little to establish how a portfolio would perform when a severe event reaches a heavily insured location.
Renewal comparisons therefore need to account for changes in the insured business as well as changes in rate. Brokers reviewing replacement values and catastrophe limits have a stronger basis for explaining whether a lower quote actually improves the client’s protection.
Read more: Soft property market sets up insurance-to-value reckoning, Amwins warns
Carrier appetite also deserves scrutiny where competition is fiercest. A steep reduction may look attractive now, but an insurer’s view of the account and its commitment to the class will shape the next renewal conversation.
A favorable property renewal also says little about the rest of a client’s program. Marsh found US casualty rates rose 6% in the third quarter, while every other region it tracks saw casualty decreases. For many clients, the property savings conversation will run straight into the casualty renewal.
“From our perspective, the most important question is not necessarily how far can the pricing move, but whether the price continues to reflect the underlying risk,” said Ningen.
