Private flood direct premiums written fell from $803 million in 2023 to $730 million in 2024, according to NAIC data - a decline that sits uncomfortably alongside El Niño conditions now confirmed by NOAA and expected to strengthen through the remainder of 2026. El Niño raises flood exposure in California and Arizona precisely as take-up of private flood cover is falling. That gap is the most actionable data point in a broker's El Niño conversation.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs put the probability of El Niño being present this summer at 98%, with an 80% chance it reaches at least moderate strength. The pattern carries materially different implications by region. California property clients face elevated exposure from atmospheric rivers, with southern California at particular risk. Arizona faces a higher probability of a wet winter. In Texas and Oklahoma, El Niño can suppress hail, tornado and damaging wind activity - though suppression is not elimination.
El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane formation by increasing vertical wind shear. NOAA has assigned a 55% probability of a below-normal Atlantic season but also projects a 70% chance of an above-normal eastern Pacific season, raising West Coast exposure. University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero cautioned that a quieter Atlantic season does not eliminate the possibility of severe impacts on the continental United States or Hawaii.
Primary carriers are holding firm on wind and named-storm deductibles in high-hazard coastal zones. Danny Stock, head of property at Allianz Commercial, said climate change adds intensity regardless of storm count, citing Hurricane Melissa, which intensified to a Category 5 in 39 hours in 2025 and caused economic losses of $6 billion to $7 billion. Reinsurers have pushed for higher attachment points and more risk-adequate pricing at lower layers, leaving primary brokers with less capacity buffer than seasonal headlines suggest. A single major landfall in a heavily exposed region can generate tens of billions of dollars in insured losses.
Steve Bennett, head of climate science and catastrophe modeling at Mercury Insurance, said the pattern should be read carefully. "El Niño influences probabilities, not certainties. It is an important signal, but it is only one piece of a much larger weather puzzle," he said.
Data cited by the Insurance Information Institute found that 22% of homeowners report being at risk of flooding, yet only 78% of that group have purchased flood insurance. The fall in private flood premiums from $803 million to $730 million between 2023 and 2024 suggests take-up is not keeping pace with exposure - and El Niño's arrival gives brokers a specific, timely reason to open that conversation before seasonal risk arrives rather than after it does.
