Global M&A acquirers underperformed non-dealmakers by -11.9 percentage points in Q2 2026, WTW's Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM) shows. The measure covers deals valued above US$100 million and tracks acquirer share price performance against the MSCI World Index.
The Q2 result marks a sharp reversal from Q1, which saw a record 12 mega deals valued above US$10 billion close worldwide. Deal value fell from US$438 billion in Q1, a five-year high, to US$232 billion in Q2 as larger transactions retreated from the opening quarter pace. Large deals valued above US$1 billion also declined, with 48 transactions completed in Q2 against 56 in Q1.
Total deal volume, however, showed resilience. The 202 transactions above US$100 million completed globally in Q2 surpassed the 176 deals closed in the same period last year. Q2 volume also came close to the 215 deals completed in Q1 and pointed to resilient performance among smaller transactions despite geopolitical headwinds.
In contrast to Q1 2026, when European acquirers outperformed by +6.0 percentage points, all regional acquirers underperformed their respective indices in Q2. North American dealmakers trailed their index by -11.6 percentage points across 103 deals, compared with -5.4 percentage points and 117 deals in Q1. European acquirers underperformed by -8.3 percentage points across 38 deals, while British acquirers also trailed the index in line with the broader European trend.
Asia-Pacific presented the starkest performance divergence, with acquirers underperforming their regional index by -35.8 percentage points compared with -3.4 percentage points in Q1. Despite that, Asia-Pacific was the only region to record a quarterly rise in deal volume, with 51 deals completed against 49 in Q1. Chinese buyers completed just seven transactions in Q2, down from 21 in the first quarter.
The data carries direct implications for transactional risk lines. Gallagher's Global M&A Insurance 2025 Review found warranty and indemnity capacity remained plentiful into 2026, with submission volumes and coverage terms broadly favourable for buyers. Greater market volatility and weaker acquirer share price performance can affect how transactional risk insurers price exposure and assess portfolio accumulation.
Jana Mercereau, head of Europe M&A consulting at WTW, said the first half of 2026 had shown how sharply M&A returns can swing between quarters.
"The M&A market continues to undergo sharp, seesaw swings in deal performance, reflecting an unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical environment," she said. "Yet, after waves of uncertainty and an uneven deal trajectory that is expected to endure for the rest of 2026, buyers have barely paused and continue to stare down volatility to cut deals."
Mercereau said geopolitical uncertainty and valuation concerns had not materially slowed deal momentum globally. She added that a disciplined, sector-focused approach would be essential to create value in current conditions. The WTW data is compiled in partnership with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School and covers completed deals sourced from LSEG.
