Canada could face the costliest natural disaster in its history if a major earthquake strikes British Columbia or parts of Ontario and Quebec, warns the first draft of a new national disaster risk assessment report.
The report is the government's first attempt to identify Canada's biggest threats from natural disasters and limit the potential damage.
Emergency preparedness minister Bill Blair said: "It's kind of like driving down the highway, and this is our attempt to illuminate - to turn the lights on and illuminate further down the road so that people can anticipate hazards." The report addresses floods, fires, and earthquakes, with extreme heat and hurricanes to come in the next version.
Despite floods and fires becoming annual problems in much of the country, the Canadian public appears ill-informed and ill-prepared for growing natural disaster risks.
Furthermore, the report highlights major gaps in government planning, limited knowledge of the most effective mitigation measures, and problems coordinating between different levels of government when disaster strikes.
A public opinion survey conducted in 2021 found that three-quarters of Canadians felt they lived in low- or moderate-risk areas for natural disasters, and the remainder was uncertain about their risk level.
Only one in 10 Canadians had taken action to reduce the risk of a weather-related emergency in their homes.
Earthquakes are rarer in Canada than flooding and wildfires, but the damage caused by a major quake will be much greater. British Columbia is at risk of an earthquake of up to a 9.0 magnitude, with estimates suggesting damages could exceed $75 billion.
This cost would make it the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history, surpassing the 2017 wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alta., which resulted in approximately $10 billion in losses.
Quebec has two seismic zones, and while resulting earthquakes aren't likely to have as high a magnitude as those in B.C., a major quake could still cause up to $61 billion in losses.
The Charlevoix Seismic Zone in northeastern Quebec has experienced at least five earthquakes greater than 6.0 magnitude in the last four centuries.
"Expected losses from a 1-in-500-year earthquake in the Charlevoix Seismic Zone or on Canada's West Coast would be higher than any natural hazard the country has experienced," the report stated.
Furthermore, these seismic zones will touch many of Canada's most populated cities, including Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, and Quebec City.
Due to the geology of the Quebec-Ontario region and the fact that many buildings in parts of those cities were built before building codes included earthquake preparedness, even a smaller quake can do significant damage.
Canada is planning to launch an early-warning system for earthquakes next year, which can give precious seconds to those who are not at the immediate epicentre to get to safety before serious shaking begins.
Blair stated that there are also efforts to provide modern flood maps that are better indicators of which homes or businesses face the most significant risk from flooding.
The budget in March also promised $15.3 million to create an online portal where Canadians can access information on their property.
Blair also noted that severe events have been increasing in frequency and severity, and officials must reflect on what might be coming to ensure that the country is prepared.
"The findings of the report show the need to make significant investments, for example, in certain types of critical infrastructure, to prevent these types of events," he said.
