New algorithm helps identify individuals most at-risk during disasters

System potentially mitigates fatalities among the disabled and elderly during times of disaster

New algorithm helps identify individuals most at-risk during disasters

Catastrophe & Flood

By Lyle Adriano

An algorithm developed at the University of Waterloo allows first responders and home care providers to determine which elderly individuals are most vulnerable in the event of a disaster.

“Frailty combined with social isolation can mean that older adults still living at home have nowhere to turn during emergencies,” John Hirdes, a researcher in the Faculty of Applied Health Sciences at the University of Waterloo, said in a release. “With a growing proportion of elderly persons choosing to reside in their own homes, it’s a very real concern. Home care services need to have mechanisms in place to manage the needs of their most vulnerable clients during disasters.”

Hirdes also serves as a senior researcher for interRAI, an international researcher network dedicated to improving the care and quality of life for vulnerable populations.

According to a release from the university, the algorithm utilizes data from interRAI’s home care assessment to generate a list of vulnerable adults receiving home care services. The algorithm takes into account disability, health status, social isolation and the amount of support a particular individual receives from informal caregivers.

Eight provinces/territories have already required the use of the interRAI assessment for long-stay home care clients.

“Older adults living on their own are more difficult to locate and assist than those living in healthcare facilities,” explained Region of Waterloo emergency management coordinator Sandy Van Solm. “This algorithm helps us to plan for disasters in advance and allows responders to quickly generate an accurate list of those who may need help during a disaster.”

Van Solm also helped develop the algorithm as part of her PhD at Waterloo, the university noted.

Both Hirdes and Van Solm are collaborating with the Canadian Institute for Health Information to roll out the algorithm into interRAI home care software used across Canada, beginning this year.

Data from the World Health Organization suggests that the elderly face considerably high fatality rates during natural disasters, citing that when Hurricane Katrina struck, 71% of the deaths that occurred during the weather event involved persons over 60 years old.


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