Canadian homeowners could face more freeze-thaw cycles, freezing rain and ice build-up this winter as a strong El Niño develops in the Pacific, according to Intact Insurance.
The insurer said seasonal signals point to a more unpredictable winter in parts of the country, though it cautioned that no seasonal forecast is exact.
"The signals we're monitoring around El Niño suggest parts of the country could experience more frequent freeze-thaw cycles, freezing rain and ice accumulation this winter," said Jonathan Gadoury, a meteorologist at Intact.
The warning follows a year in which ice was the single biggest driver of catastrophe losses in Canada. The late-March 2025 ice storm in Ontario and Quebec ultimately cost insurers $466 million, according to Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). That covered residential and commercial property, auto claims and loss adjustment expenses. CatIQ's broader catastrophe figure for the event, at $490 million, made it the costliest event of 2025 and close to a quarter of the year's total insured catastrophe losses.
Across 2025, severe weather caused more than $2.4 billion in insured damage, the tenth-costliest year on record, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada. IBC said annual insured losses from catastrophic weather and wildfires had nearly tripled over the past decade, from $14 billion in 2006 to 2015 to $37 billion in 2016 to 2025, while the average number of claims had nearly doubled.
Intact said many common winter claims start with small maintenance problems that go unnoticed until temperatures drop. Mel Wright, vice-president and head of Intact's prevention program, said clearing eavestroughs, checking roofs and testing sump pumps in the fall could help homeowners find weak spots before winter weather tests them.
The insurer's checklist also includes repairing damaged shingles and siding, trimming dead branches that could fall under the weight of ice, sealing drafts, and making sure water drains at least two metres away from the foundation. It also recommends shutting off and draining outdoor faucets to prevent frozen pipes.
Intact launched its Keep It Intact prevention program in 2025, offering homeowners seasonal checklists and advice on reducing weather damage.
For personal lines brokers, a winter forecast like this is a chance to talk to clients about coverage before claims arrive, not after.
Ice-related losses often turn on policy wording. Damage from a sudden event, such as a tree branch falling on a roof under the weight of ice, is typically handled differently from damage caused by gradual deterioration or poor maintenance, which many home policies exclude. Water entering a home through an ice dam, seepage through a foundation, and sewer backup during a thaw can each fall under different coverages or endorsements. Clients who haven't added sewer backup or overland water cover may find they're exposed in exactly the conditions a freeze-thaw winter brings.
Insurers' growing emphasis on prevention also signals a direction for underwriting. As carriers invest in programs that encourage maintenance and mitigation, brokers can expect more questions at renewal about roof age, sump pumps and backflow valves, and more weight on maintenance when claims are assessed. Brokers who encourage clients to complete and document fall maintenance help protect both their claims outcomes and their insurability.
