Two-thirds of the rate gains built up across specialty insurance since 2017 have now been eroded, with the pace of softening accelerating through the first half of 2026 and showing no sign of slowing, according to WTW’s latest Specialty Insurance Marketplace Survey (SIMS).
Between 2017 and the market peak in 2023, specialty rates net of claims and exposure trend rose by approximately 50% cumulatively. By July 2026, around 65% of those gains had unwound. In the first six months of 2026 alone, both insurance and reinsurance rates declined 4% gross of trend and 6% net of trend. Reinsurance softened three to four times faster than in 2025. Every one of the 15 material insurance and reinsurance classes tracked by SIMS recorded a net-of-claims-trend rate decrease in H1 2026.
When the May 2026 SIMS update was published, covering the January renewals, the erosion of hard-market rate gains stood at around 50%. The additional 15 percentage points unwound in roughly five months.
“Insurance rate movements in the first half of 2026 were broadly consistent with the January 1 renewals, with a decline of 4% gross of trend compared with 5%,” said Richard Clarkson, global market leader for global specialty at WTW. “Against this backdrop, the July 1 results point to accelerating softening, with rates down 6% gross and 9% net. Rate movements across most individual classes also show no slowdown.”
The survey draws on approximately $300 billion in gross written premium across a 10-year cycle, including $50 billion for full-year 2025 and $29 billion in the first half of 2026. Unlike most market surveys, which rely on broker-reported data, SIMS uses insurer-owned data provided by participating clients of WTW’s Insurance Consulting and Technology business. That makes its pricing signals useful for benchmarking renewal outcomes.
Property posted the steepest declines, with rates down 17% net of trend at the July 1 renewals. Energy and financial and professional liability (FINEX) recorded high-single-digit reductions net of trend, with early signs of stabilization in US FINEX. Marine fell by mid-single digits. Aviation and accident and health posted low-single-digit reductions.
Nominal rate increases of 6% at the July 1 renewals look positive on their own, but WTW estimates the underlying claims trend at 8% in excess of exposure trend, producing an effective 2% rate reduction in real terms. That gap was not visible in the January renewal data.
The finding is consistent with concerns raised earlier in 2026 by Lloyd’s chief of market performance Rachel Turk, who warned in May that casualty rate adequacy was questionable given persistent social inflation, describing a casualty risk-adjusted rate change of plus 1% as insufficient given persistent social inflation. The WTW data, drawn from the July renewals, shows that position has worsened.
Specialty brokers placing casualty risks have faced two competing dynamics through 2026: nominal rates still rising, while actual claims-cost inflation runs ahead of them. The result is that coverage that appears adequately priced on rate-change metrics alone may carry more reserve risk than those metrics suggest.
Across other specialty lines, the direction is clearer. The combination of abundant reinsurance capital and subdued catastrophe losses in the first half of 2026 has driven competitive conditions that show no structural impediment. WTW noted that the 1 July results showed no slowdown across most individual classes, and the next SIMS update, covering the second half of 2026 and the 1 January 2027 renewals, will be the first test of whether conditions stabilze or deteriorate further.
