Applied Systems has released its second-quarter 2026 results from the Applied Rating Index, the Canadian insurance industry's premium rate index, showing average premiums for both Personal Auto and Personal Property continued to climb year over year across the country, with Alberta again posting the steepest increases in both lines.
Personal Auto premium rates rose 21.8% nationally compared with Q2 2025 and were up 0.1% from Q1 2026. Personal Property rates increased 5.8% year over year and 0.8% quarter over quarter.
Alberta led both categories by a wide margin, with Personal Auto rates up 22.6% and Personal Property up 11.9% year over year, while Quebec recorded the smallest increases at 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.
For Personal Auto, year-over-year increases ranged from Alberta's 22.6% down to Quebec's 0.9%, with Ontario at 7.0% and the Atlantic provinces at 9.4%. Quarter over quarter, Alberta and the Atlantic provinces saw further increases of 4.1% and 2.4%, while Ontario and Quebec posted declines of 0.1% and 1.8%, respectively.
Personal Property told a similar story. Alberta's 11.9% annual increase was followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 10.8%, the Atlantic provinces at 8.9%, Ontario at 4.2%, British Columbia at 1.9% and Quebec at 0.7%. Quarter over quarter, Saskatchewan and Manitoba rose 3.5%, while Ontario and Quebec were the only regions to see declines, at 0.1% and 1.9% respectively.
Steve Whitelaw (pictured), SVP and general manager at Applied Systems Canada, said the data gives the industry a real-time view of where the market is heading.
"Premium rates for Personal Auto and Personal Property continued to climb across Canada in the second quarter, with Alberta again driving the sharpest increases in both lines," Whitelaw said. "The Applied Rating Index continues to give brokers and insurers a clear, real-time view of where rates are moving so they can respond to their clients and markets with confidence."
Alberta's persistent lead reflects a market under strain heading into a major regulatory overhaul.
The province's Automobile Insurance Rate Board reported average full-coverage auto premiums reached roughly $1,835 in the first half of 2025, up more than 8% year over year, driven primarily by rising personal injury claim costs.
Alberta's government has capped annual increases for qualifying good drivers at 7.5% for 2026, and plans a more sweeping change on January 1, 2027, replacing the current litigation-based system with a "Care-First" model designed to limit lawsuits after a collision in favor of guaranteed access to care and benefits, paired with a new cap limiting insurers to average increases of 5% across their customer base and 10% for individual policyholders at renewal.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada has defended the reforms, while the Alberta Civil Trial Lawyers Association argues they restrict court access without a guaranteed premium reduction, pointing instead to severe weather as a bigger driver of claims costs.
Ontario's comparatively modest 7.0% increase, and its quarterly decline, likely reflects an easing of a different pressure. Équité Association's 2025 Auto Theft Trend Report found stolen-vehicle claims fell 18% nationally compared with 2024, with Ontario recording one of the largest declines at 22%, even though theft-related claim losses nationally still reached an estimated $900 million.
Ontario's Financial Services Regulatory Authority expects the theft decline to gradually ease pressure on future rate increases, even as the province separately moves to make certain accident benefits optional, a change some brokers warn could leave drivers underinsured.
Even outside Alberta, the index's national figures point to a Canadian personal lines market still absorbing higher claims costs broadly, from vehicle repair complexity and parts shortages to the kind of severe weather losses CatIQ and the Insurance Bureau of Canada have tracked climbing in recent years.
With Ontario and Quebec posting comparatively modest increases and even quarterly declines, the Q2 data suggests the rate pressure driving national averages higher is now concentrated in a smaller set of provinces rather than spread evenly across the country.
