CatIQ has disclosed its final industry loss estimate for the wildfire that struck Jasper, Alberta, between July 22 and August 17, 2024, while also issuing a second loss estimate for the Saskatchewan and Manitoba severe storm outbreak of June 9 and 10, 2026.
The final estimate for the Jasper fire, marking the two-year post-event snapshot, came in at $1.304 billion, essentially unchanged from the one-year estimate of $1.313 billion.
The Jasper wildfire remains by far the costliest Canadian fire event of the 2020s, with total losses only slightly below the combined total of the decade's eleven other wildfire events to date. Canada has recorded at least one fire-related catastrophe every year since 2023, including five events declared in 2025.
Laura Twidle, president and CEO of CatIQ, said the event stood out for how much damage a relatively contained number of claims could generate.
"Though the loss footprint for the Jasper wildfire was relatively small, it is an important reminder that even a small number of claims can drive tremendous loss," Twidle said. "Of the more than 220 events in the CatIQ catastrophe loss database, Jasper maintains the highest average claim value for both personal and commercial property."
Jasper's severity fits a broader provincial pattern. Research from TD Economics found that Alberta accounts for 42% of Canada's insured catastrophic losses since 1983, a larger share than Ontario and Quebec combined, despite Ontario recording the highest overall number of catastrophic events nationally.
As of 2024, Alberta had been hit by five separate severe weather events, including two wildfires, two hailstorms and a flood, each causing over a billion dollars in insured losses, together accounting for half the province's cumulative catastrophic losses since 1983.
CatIQ's second estimate for the Saskatchewan and Manitoba severe storm outbreak, six weeks after the event, now stands at $850 million, up from its initial estimate, with the growth concentrated in motor lines. Both the Jasper and Prairie estimates cover commercial and residential property claims as well as vehicle claims.
A third update for the Prairie event is due September 10, 2026, three months after the event, at which point FSA-level loss data will also become available.
Twidle said the storm outbreak's impact looked markedly different from Jasper's.
"Contrasting the Jasper fire, the severe weather outbreak saw large population centres directly impacted by storms, driving a very large number of claims," she said. "As it stands, this event now has the third highest number of claims of any in the CatIQ database. It has been a busy start to the catastrophe season, and we must remember that these numbers are tied to people who have some of their largest investments and assets impacted."
The two updates land at a pivotal moment for Canadian property catastrophe reinsurance.
According to Guy Carpenter Canada's 2026 executive outlook, Canadian insurers are expected to benefit from a softening reinsurance market this year, a reversal after the property catastrophe reinsurance market had been firm or hardening since 2021, with rate-on-line increasing annually through the difficult 2025 renewal that followed record 2024 catastrophe losses of roughly $8.9 billion.
Guy Carpenter attributed the expected 2026 softening to favorable global reinsurer performance and limited 2025 catastrophe loss experience both in Canada and globally, conditions that could give insurers more room to absorb events like Jasper and the Prairie storms without the sharp coverage reductions and cost increases seen at the 2025 renewal.
Against that improving backdrop, individual insurers have already flagged 2026 as another active year regardless. Intact Financial reported second-quarter catastrophe losses of $416 million, roughly a third of its full-year catastrophe guidance of about $1.2 billion, with roughly 75% of that guidance tied to Canadian exposure and peak wildfire and hurricane season still ahead.
CatIQ has separately noted that Canada's 2026 catastrophe season shifted up a month compared with typical years, adding pressure to loss totals earlier in the season than insurers have historically budgeted for.
