Not long ago, the word tariffs barely registered in economic conversations across North America. A glance at Google search metrics would’ve shown just a handful of mentions in a given month. Today, the term generates thousands of hits daily. This surge reflects how rapidly global trade tensions – particularly the introduction of new US tariffs – have become a dominant concern across industries. The specialty insurance sector is no exception.
That is according to David Crozier (pictured), president and managing director of Markel Canada, who said that the industry now finds itself in a holding pattern, awaiting the next wave of macroeconomic data to gauge what kind of impact these developments may bring.
One factor he said is complicating predictions about the impact of US tariffs is the short-term economic boost triggered by pre-emptive stockpiling.
As companies scrambled to service clients before the measures took effect, many accelerated the import and export of raw materials and finished goods – both from and into the US. This surge in activity, he said, temporarily lifted GDP figures and masked some of the underlying risks.
For the specialty insurance sector, he added, this front-loaded momentum makes it harder to assess the real consequences of the tariffs, as early indicators may reflect artificial demand rather than sustainable trends.
“Now that that's largely passed, I would say the specialty insurance industry is in limbo, waiting to see what the next impact of tariffs would or could be, because the economic data isn't in yet,” he said.
Crozier said that, for Markel Canada and others in the specialty insurance space, the most significant hurdle to future growth isn’t any single market condition or regulation – it’s uncertainty itself.
The evolving geopolitical landscape, unpredictable economic signals, and the potential for unforeseen risks create an environment where planning becomes especially complex.
This ambiguity, he added, makes it difficult to anticipate how risks will evolve or how markets will respond. For insurers, waiting until adverse events materialize before offering solutions can’t be an option. The industry, he said, must be as proactive as possible.
“You can either think about everything that could ever happen, and become paralyzed, or you can think about what is most likely to happen… [and try] to mitigate the volatility that we and our customers are facing,” he said.
In his view, the goal is to offer clients predictability and support even when the broader economic picture remains unsettled. As he puts it, the challenge lies in addressing “the unknown unknowns” – the emerging or hidden risks that are not yet fully understood but could prove disruptive if left unaddressed.
While the new developments haven’t forced the specialty insurance sector to increase the frequency of its client and broker interactions, Crozier said the nature of those conversations is changing in response to the shifts in the economic climate.
He said that the dialogue is becoming more forward-looking and strategic. Rather than relying on standard renewal discussions, brokers and clients are increasingly focused on how macroeconomic factors – especially tariffs and trade disruptions – could affect their operations and risk profiles.
“We aren’t in touch more often, because, in specialty insurance, the unique risks call for a fairly high degree of touch already. But it did change the nature of the questions.” Crozier said. “We’re asking: What does this mean for your business? How do you expect it to affect your numbers? What kind of new risks might arise?”
These more targeted discussions reflect an effort to remain proactive, and not reactive, in how coverage is shaped and maintained. Crozier said that Markel’s approach is rooted in listening closely, modeling client concerns into underwriting strategies, and maintaining flexibility to adapt as new trends emerge.
Despite the uncertainty clouding the specialty insurance market, Crozier maintains a fundamentally optimistic view.
He believes that global systems – while far from perfect – are resilient and interconnected enough to absorb economic shocks, including those brought on by trade disruptions and protectionist policies.
That perspective, he said, informs Markel Canada’s strategic posture. While the company is closely monitoring how tariffs and broader economic shifts affect clients and renewal patterns, it hasn’t felt the need to dramatically revise its forecasts or risk appetite.
“We haven’t re-budgeted our year based on the introduction of tariffs,” Crozier said. “But we are reading these developments into the numbers – especially as the months progress and we see how customers are responding.”
