Global supply chain disruptions are increasingly shaping local underwriting decisions in Canada as geopolitical tensions, climate events and technological change ripple through trade flows, a senior Zurich Canada executive said.
Supply chain issues rarely appear as standalone “top risks” in rankings, but they are now a key channel through which shocks such as tariffs, armed conflict and cyber incidents translate into losses for Canadian portfolios, said Miriam Havergal, senior vice president and technical director at Zurich Canada, speaking at the CAMGA conference in Toronto.
“Supply chain doesn’t always show up in the top 10 global risks in its own right,” she said, referring to the World Economic Forum’s annual risk report. “But it is a byproduct of many of the risks at the top of that list – geoeconomic confrontation, state‑based armed conflict, critical infrastructure, cyber, even misinformation and disinformation.”
She pointed to tariffs and wider protectionist policies, ongoing conflicts, climate‑driven shocks and cyber incidents as all having direct, practical implications for how goods move – and where Canadian insureds ultimately feel the impact.
Havergal pointed to ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz as an example of how quickly a regional development can send shockwaves through global trade flows. The same dynamic played out earlier in the decade when the Ukraine-Russia conflict disrupted the supply of a far less obvious commodity.
"Ukraine and Russia are the biggest exporters of sunflower oil," she said. "During the beginning of the war, there was a supply chain shortage which had a dramatic impact in terms of the manufacturing of food and produce, with companies rapidly trying to find alternatives."
Havergal said many firms are looking to artificial intelligence to make their supply chains more agile and resilient. She cited a recent Gartner survey in which 74% of respondents identified AI as one of the main influences on supply chains over the next three to five years.
AI is being seen as a driver of agility – finding new routes, optimising logistics, making supply chains more responsive, she said, but cautioned that the rapid build‑out of AI itself is creating fresh bottlenecks and concentration risks.
“There is already talk of an AI bottleneck,” she said. The infrastructure cannot keep up with the requirements of artificial intelligence right now. Data centres are being built as quickly as possible, which raises its own questions around CAT accumulation and the value concentrations we’re seeing, she added.
She added that the power demand from AI and data centres is expected to put significant pressure on grids, noting projections of a 45‑gigawatt electricity shortfall in the United States by 2028.
“That doesn’t just affect AI,” she said, and added that it has a knock‑on impact on manufacturing plants and the cost of utilities. Those costs, and any instability, ultimately flow through to consumers and small businesses. So AI sits both on the solution side and as another node of systemic risk, she pointed out.
In response to recent shocks, Havergal said many corporates have already altered their physical footprint. Around 74% of companies have changed the size or number of locations in their supply chain – through onshoring, near‑shoring or “friend‑shoring” to countries seen as politically safer or more aligned.
“Reducing dependency on a single country or region is a logical business move,” she said. “But it doesn’t eliminate risk, it changes it.”
Moving into new jurisdictions exposes companies to unfamiliar regulatory regimes, political landscapes and climate‑related perils, she noted. At the same time, building bigger inventories to avoid stockouts – a lesson many firms took from the COVID‑19 pandemic – increases values in storage, creating larger property concentrations and more attractive targets for crime.
Havergal said cargo theft is another area where global trends are relevant to Canadian portfolios. Reported theft incidents have continued to rise into 2026, with food and beverage and electronics remaining the top targets.
She also highlighted the growing sophistication of cyber‑enabled disruptions to logistics. As a historical example, she referenced the 2017 cyberattack on Maersk, which temporarily shut down operations at dozens of ports worldwide. More recently, she said, attackers have been able to manipulate tracking systems and reroute cargo, effectively making entire shipments disappear.
“It’s no longer just about malware and ransom,” she said.
Bringing the discussion back to Canada, Havergal said many of the pressures now visible at the pump, in grocery aisles and in auto‑repair shops are symptoms of the same global forces.
Fuel and food costs have surged, she noted, and the availability and price of vehicle parts and electronics are being affected by shortages of semiconductors and other components – often manufactured in countries that may not appear as direct Canadian trading partners, but sit deeper in the supply chain.
“The little chips going into cars are often the same chips going into computers and other electronics,” she said. If there’s disruption at that level, it feeds into product liability, longer repair times and ultimately longer and more expensive claims, she said.
For MGAs, she said, the implication is that portfolio management now requires a broader, more dynamic view of supply‑chain‑driven accumulation and dependency.
“It is an expanded role in terms of managing portfolios, managing any of the dependencies, and assisting the businesses as well,” she said.
Havergal urged MGAs to use global carrier partnerships to access early warning on regulatory and trade changes, and to encourage insureds – even mid‑sized ones – to revisit business continuity plans and supplier dependencies.
“We have teams of lawyers… monitoring changes to tariffs, taxes and local insurance requirements around the world,” she said. The value for MGAs is in using those global insights to understand how a change in one country might impact the suppliers of your customers, and what that could mean for your Canadian book, she concluded.
