More rain is forecast for the Ottawa area through midweek, extending a record-wet summer that is adding to the catastrophe losses Canadian insurers are managing as they enter the 2026 renewal cycle.
Environment Canada's forecast issued Sunday called for showers Monday night, with a 60% chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Ottawa has already recorded its wettest summer on record, with more than 510.1 mm of precipitation measured at the Ottawa airport by mid-August.
The wet summer has been marked by repeated heavy-rain events, including a Canada Day storm that produced 118.4 mm of precipitation at Ottawa International Airport on July 1. The rainfall broke the city's daily July record and contributed to widespread basement flooding. Later reports put the number of flooded-basement reports at about 5,800.
Canadian insurers entered 2026 with expectations of relief in property catastrophe reinsurance.
Guy Carpenter Canada's December executive outlook said the market was moving toward softer conditions after a firm or hardening cycle that had persisted since 2021. The broker said the 2025 renewal had followed a record $8.9 billion in Canadian catastrophe losses in 2024.
Peter Askew, Guy Carpenter Canada's executive, said most Canadian treaty renewals were still in the price-discovery phase at the time of the outlook. He pointed to favourable global reinsurer performance, reinsurers' appetite for growth and limited 2025 catastrophe losses in Canada and globally as factors supporting a softer market in 2026.
The outlook is being tested against a busy Canadian storm season. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ) estimated insured losses from severe thunderstorms that affected southern Ontario and southern Quebec between June 30 and July 3 at $439 million, up from an initial $374 million estimate. The increase was driven mainly by commercial lines, and the figure includes residential and commercial property, motor claims and loss-adjustment expenses.
CatIQ director Caroline Floyd said the event was one of 11 severe convective storm catastrophes declared nationally since June. She also said several large population centres, including Ottawa and Edmonton, had recorded their wettest summers on record with more than a month remaining in the season.
Insurance Bureau of Canada vice-president of strategy Maximilien Roy, commenting on the same CatIQ release, said the growing cost of severe weather is being felt by households, communities, insurers and governments alike, and pointed to the need for greater investment in measures that reduce flood risk.
For insurers and brokers with catastrophe-exposed portfolios in Ottawa, the summer's repeated rainfall events add another layer to the broader reinsurance discussion.
Guy Carpenter's December outlook said softer conditions could allow insurers to reduce reinsurance spending on a risk-adjusted basis and potentially unwind some coverage restrictions introduced during the harder market. It also identified additional protection for frequency losses, including third-event and aggregate solutions, as opportunities that could emerge in a softer market.
Ottawa's July 1 storm illustrates the scale of the local exposure. Mayor Mark Sutcliffe said the event caused more than twice the property damage of the 2019 Ottawa River flood, which affected roughly 2,000 homes.
The contrast does not necessarily mean Ottawa's losses will change national reinsurance pricing. Rather, the city's experience highlights the challenge facing insurers as they seek the benefits of greater reinsurance capacity while managing more frequent severe-weather claims.
With additional rain forecast and claims from earlier storms continuing to move through the insurance system, Ottawa provides a local example of the gap between improving reinsurance market conditions and the loss-frequency pressures facing catastrophe-exposed portfolios.
